Fantasy Basketball Galore

A Tale of Two Drafts (part 2)

2009-10-22T03:14:00.000-07:00

Four more days until the NBA season starts, fantasy b-ballers!

I can't wait for the Lakers to get their rings and drub the "new-look" Clippers again like they've been doing since the Clips were in San Diego. But until then let's continue w/ my ESPN league draft analysis. I'll hit you up with 4 more commentary-filled rounds today (Rounds 6-9, where, combined with the final rounds, fantasy leagues are frequently won or lost) and then wrap up the ESPN draft in the 3rd post, followed by my Yahoo draft analysis (which will be much more focused on my team, since you will know my thoughts on almost all the players).

Last we left off, I picked up a crucial cog (if he can stay healthy) to my squad in Andrew Bynum, but I'm already crossing my fingers that his strained shoulder isn't a big issue [btw, I'm PISSED that he will be missing the final preseason game in San Diego that I'm going to tonight]. I can't have 2 guys (Love being the other) tease me w/ monster preseasons only to have both need to start from square one in the regular season, can I?!... can I? :0/ Gotta shake this bad karma - on to Round 6!

Roster refresher:

JB: A. Randolph, LBJ, JJ, Pierce, Jameer, Brand
HC: E. Gordon, CP3, KG, Gerald Wallace, Biedrins, Aldridge
DW: R. Westbrook, Durant, Billups, David West, Vinsanity, Bargnani
JP: M. Beasley, D. Wade, Iguodala, Devin Harris, Nene, Bogut
SZ: J. Thompson, Kobe, Pau, Carmelo, Tony Parker, J. Richardson
SK: O.J. Mayo, Dirk, Nash, Troy Murphy, Arenas, Rashard
GB: CDR, Granger, Calderon, Rondo, David Lee, Okur
JM: B. Lopez, Amare, B. Roy, Kevin Martin, Duncan, Al Harrington
AM: D. Rose, Deron, Al Jeff, Kidd, Caron Butler, Ben Gordon
Me: K. Love, Dwight, Bosh, JSmoov, Monta, Bynum

Round 6:

Me - 51. SHAWN MARION; AM - 52. Ray Allen; JM- 53. Charlie Villanueva; GB - 54. Al Horford; SK - 55. Michael Redd; SZ - 56. Hedo Turkoglu; JP - 57. Thaddeus Young; DW - 58. Antawn Jamison; HC - 59. Manu Ginobili; JB - 60. Marcus Camby

So I REALLY tried to convince myself to take CV here since I am uber-high on him and had him rated the highest on my cheat sheet, but when you have zero 3-pt shooters in your first 6 picks it just ain't gonna happen. When you remove 3's from the equation it's painfully obvious that Marion is way better than CV. Plus, if the couple games he played for Dallas in the preseason is any indication, it looks like Kidd may be able to resurrect the Matrix we all used to know and love, which would make grabbing him at #51 quite a steal. Now that I look back on the draft, I wonder if I should have just reached for Mo Williams here, to give me another PG and start trying to work on 3's, but no, I don't think that would have been better than the superior value Marion provides...

Ray Allen is a staple of any AM team, since he loves the Celtics so much (J/K - he's a big Lakers fan like me). But seriously, Ray Ray still offers plenty of fantasy value even at the ripe ole age of 34.

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE CV this year, and was so impressed w/ him last year, that I traded significant value to get him, and almost allowed Scott Skiles to ruin my championship season. Skiles is an idiot, control-freak, defense addict who has an allergy to playing his best players (e.g. he's already decided to start Kurt Thomas over a clearly superior Hakim Warrick - Kurt Thomas? Are you freakin' serious, Skiles?!). CV was clearly the Bucks best player last year (after Redd & Bogut went down with injuries), and when stupid Skiles actually played CV decent minutes he went off. The only guy on the Pistons who might be a better player than him is Ben Gordon, and the fantasy world is very soon going to see what kind of havoc an unleashed CV can wreak on the rest of the NBA. He fits into small ball or big ball strategies since he scores, hits 3's, gets rebs and plays D, and has good %'s to boot - a win, win for JM here.

GB gets the last non-injury risk top tier C in Horford @ #54 (but in all honestly, I still can't see what direction this team is going in, other than drafting the highest value players - this can be a good strategy, but then you have to rely on the other managers in the league making trades w/ you to mold your squad how you want), SK continues his obsession w/ 3's (although I think Salmons would have been a bit safer play than Redd), SZ gets the overrated, but well-rounded Turk at a fairly appropriate pick, and JP reaches somewhat @ #57 for a "young" Thaddeus (haha - I crack myself up) w/ significant upside potential.

For like 10 picks a couple other managers and I were wondering aloud when someone would finally draft the injured Jamison (who will need to be healthy if the Wiz hope to finally knock out Varejao and the Cavs in the playoffs, like in the pic above). DW has shown no aversion in the past to drafting injured players, but I really think he got good value here (@ #58), especially on his small-ball team. Plus, we have the 1 IR slot, and he didn't draft multiple other injured players (for the 1st time ever - lol), so the risk is really minimal.

We are used to seeing Manu in the above pose, and that mental snapshot caused him to fall significantly in fantasy drafts across the world this year. We're talking about a perennial top 30 player (based on averages) who HC scoops up w/ the 59th pick. HC keeps his steals strong and gets a much needed injection of 3's, but he will still need to find some more assists in the very near future to complement CP3...

Camby rounds out the end of Round 6 for JB, who finally gets a C on his squad - you just have to wonder how long this particular one can stay out of his IR spot for.

Round 7:

JB - 61. Blake Griffin; HC - 62. Boris Diaw; DW - 63. Mo Williams; JP - 64. Ramon Sessions; SZ - 65. Zach Randolph; SK - 66. Rudy Gay; GB - 67. Tyreke Evans; JM - 68. Jason Terry; AM - 69. Carlos Boozer; Me - 70. BARON DAVIS

I'm not a particularly big fan of rookies in fantasy b-ball, but especially not this one (unless you are throwing FT% like I am - but even I wasn't looking at taking him early since I already had plenty of scoring rebounders). Blake's FT struggles just kill your FT%, since he will put up a ton of them at 60%. Last time I checked, the only guy worth throwing FT% for was named Dwight Howard. But Blake has universally been drafted way too high in every mock and real draft I've seen due to his IRL value, which unfortunately for his owners (sorry, JB), doesn't translate into fantasy b-ball success. I had him ranked #106, and the 61st pick is just way too high to take him at.

This is a bit of a sneaky pick for HC, since Diaw can help out CP3 significantly with assists, so I can't fault this pick at all, but to meet positional needs, B-Diddy may have been the better pick for him here. In retrospect, I'm actually quite jealous of the draft DW has going to this point (minus David West and plus Troy Murphy at that #23 pick) since I love to go small ball w/ solid rebs and punt FG%.

Just like Sessions got duped by David Kahn into thinking he was coming to Minnesota for a starting gig at PG, so was JP duped into drafting Sessions early by that starter promise. When a round of "huhs?" went up from the peanut gallery after he wrote this pick on the big board, JP was unpleasantly surprised to learn that Flynn, and not Sessions, was penciled in to start at PG on opening night. "Beuller? Beuller?..." ;0)

Zach Randolph seems to be a 20-10 guy no matter what team he plays on (probably because he's a black hole on offense), and doesn't hurt SZ's %'s. SK finally breaks the geriatric mold to get another young Grizzly, Rudy Gay, who would have significant upside if he didn't play w/ 3 other black holes (Zach, AI and O.J.) - but it's still a very solid pick (and EVERY SINGLE player SK has taken so far hits 3's!).

Again, I don't like to take rookies this early (pick #67 for a guy I had ranked #110) but this particular rookie probably has more upside than any of the others, and don't be at all surprised if he wins ROY. Blake Griffin is surrounded by a lot of talent and has to compete for minutes w/ Camby and Kaman, while Tyreke has zero competition for PG minutes (Udrih? PuhLEASE...) and plays on an awful team. His game is like a hybrid of Rondo's and DWade's and we all know how those guys turned out (although the low 3pt total is a fantasy issue). I think GB could have waited another round or 2 to get Tyreke, but he really wanted this particular rookie, and it's not difficult to see why.

The Jet is always underrated (esp. since he has PG/SG eligibility) and JM gets good value once again w/ this pick.

The player above is a POOTY TANG who I despise as much as any Celtic. He doesn't challenge any shots, holds and shoves people to get rebounds, and has some of the least heart of any All-Star player I have ever seen. That being said, he gets 18-10 w/ great FG%, and AM gets great value drafting Boozer this late (@ #69).

So, I've been staring at John Salmons and Ron Artest on my cheat sheet for the last 9 picks since they are easily the highest rated players remaining, but I am VERY concerned about my lack of PGs and assists. As such, I realized that, despite his horrible %'s, I can ignore the FT% and get my assists jump-started w/ B-Diddy. But I also didn't forget about my highly underrated SG friend from Chicago...

Round 8:

Me - 71. JOHN SALMONS; AM - 72. Luis Scola; JM- 73. Emeka Okafor; GB - 74. Lou Williams; SK - 75. Shaquille O'Neal; SZ - 76. Stephen Jackson; JP - 77. J.R. Smith; DW - 78. Jeff Green; HC - 79. Ron Artest; JB - 80. Tyrus Thomas

I need another SG, and I don't want to pass on too much overall fantasy value during the draft just for the sake of getting guys who fit my team a bit better. I am extremely high on Salmons this year w/ Gordon gone (I had him ranked #44), and he provides well-rounded contribution w/ solid %'s. He is durable and essentially has no fantasy weakness. It's a shame to waste his 3pters, but I'll happily take the points and other stats. All in all, I feel like I got a steal here w/ the 71st pick.

Scola is a very solid C (w/ Yao out for the season) who doesn't hurt AM's %'s (which he is always mindful of), Emeka bolsters JM's rebs and blks and makes his earlier KMart pick make a lot more sense, and Lou is one of the last high scoring, quality PGs left (and w/ 4 PGs and 3 C's already, GB can now just go for the best player available on the board w/ each remaining pick).

As a (non-gay) Kobe-lover, I can't stand Shaq IRL, and I can't stand this sub-optimal pick for SK's fantasy squad. He has a classic small-ball team going w/ amazing 3's, pts, asts and FT% and barely any blocks whatsoever. Why then go with the "Big Lazy A$$" here (who significantly hurts your FT%)? I probably would have solidified steals here w/ Artest, all-around production with SJax or rebounds w/ Noah, but SK's wife is a Cavs fan, so maybe he felt pressured here... ;0) Still, the 75th pick is way too early for Shaq (e.g. consider that I had him ranked #139).

If SJax looks confused about why he dropped so far in the draft, he doesn't have to look any farther than his own idiotic antics w/ the Warriors. #76 seems real late for SJax, so SZ looks to have gotten good value, but owning SJax this year has to make one highly uneasy, given his trade demands, the "Nellie factor," and his general overall stupidity. Still, if he can keep his head together, he gives great all-around production (minus FG% and TO's).

I was really high on J.R. Smith this season before his legal issues and his 7-gm suspension popped up. Now, it seems that Afflalo has won the starting SG job in Denver, but I still expect J.R. will improve on his stats from last year for JP. DW goes for the Thunder trifecta with Jeff Green (& Durant & Westbrook), and you can't argue with the substantial fantasy value that Green provides. If anything, DW can just trade one of his young OKC guys (well, probably NOT Durant) if he has to.

Ron-Ron may not be the #1, #2 or even #3 option on offense anymore, but he's still Ron Artest and will play great D and find a way to put up useful offensive production on the Lakers. His scoring will go down, but his assists and FG% will go up, and he should still provide plenty of 3's and stls still. HC gets the steal of the 8th round (@ pick #79), and I had Artest rated #47.

Tyrus Thomas is an athletic freak and will provide plenty of stls and blks for JB, as long as Vinny continues to give him his due playing time.

Round 9:

JB - 81. Mario Chalmers; HC - 82. Leandro Barbosa; DW - 83. Spencer Hawes; JP - 84. Joakim Noah; SZ - 85. Marc Gasol; SK - 86. Andre Miller; GB - 87. Channing Frye; JM - 88. Mike Bibby; AM - 89. Josh Howard; Me - 90. T.J. FORD

Mario Chalmers is an enigma to me, because my Basketballmonster.com rating for him says he's a fantasy beast (I'm assuming because of his combo of 3's, asts and stls), but he just seems to do nothing half of the games he's out there (take yesterday's preseason game for example). If Chalmers lives up to his potential he will be a solid pick for JB, but he feels like the riskiest of the players rated as highly as he is. HC grabs Barbosa, who seems primed for a pretty big year (now that Shaq is gone), but it is very important to note that, as of now, Barbosa only has SG eligibility in ESPN. As such, HC probably would have been better off taking Nate Robinson or T.J. Ford here, but Barbosa does have the potential to be a fantasy beast. Spencer Hawes makes sense for DW's small-ball squad, and he desperately needed a 2nd C. JP grabs the best remaining C available and I think Noah is gonna have a much better year than most people predict of him. Vinny loves the guy and he hustles, plays D, and gets cheap baskets - a solid IRL and fantasy player. SZ teams up Pau w/ his brother Marc, and we officially have a C run going! You can't fault anyone here, because the centers are really starting to dry up at this point (which is part of the reason why I really wanted to have 3 solid C's going into the middle rounds). SK breaks the 3-pt mold and finally drafts someone who doesn't chuck 'em up from long distance. While I'm not a huge fan of Andre Miller in Portland (since for some strange reason, Nate McMillan refuses to start him), he has the potential to have a big year, and I like SK picking up some more assists here to help Nash out.

I'm actually very high on Channing Frye this year (as he is the Sun's starting C), and think he's a perfect fit for GB's "pooty tang" big man squad, but there is something to be said about drafting someone earlier than you have to (like you will eventually see that I did in round 10 - arg!...). A "sleeper" is only a true sleeper if you wait to draft them until after your perceived value of them has passed. I actually note on my cheat sheet which players are universally undervalued (e.g. fantasy studs like CV and John Salmons) so that I know I can pass on them (e.g. to meet positional needs 1st) and get them 1, 2 or 3 rounds later than where I have them valued at. As I said, I love Frye on GB's squad, but he easily could have picked him up 2 or 3 rounds later.

With Terry and now Bibby, JM has officially signaled that he has given up on assists, which I totally agree with on his squad. Bibby gets a ton of 3's, but I think I would have gone w/ Nate Robinson here (but it didn't end up mattering, because I completely screwed up my 10th round pick, and JM magically picked up Nate 20 frickin' picks later @ #108!). Next, I'm starting to get a bit antsy now, because 5 out of 9 of my historically chief rival's (we have finished 1-2 in the regular season and played each other in the finals the past 2 seasons) picks have been great value picks, and Josh Howard is no exception for AM (the other 4 value picks being Kidd, Butler, Ray and Boozer), assuming he can stay a bit healthier this season. I'm beginning to think I am going to have to go through AM yet again if I want to get a 3-peat this year... :0/

So, to wrap up the 9th round, I am more than happy to pick up T.J. Ford, and continue building on my assists. I think T.J. will have a big year now that Jarrett Jack is gone (Earl Watson ain't gonna steal any of T.J.'s minutes), and actually had him rated #67. So, I'm feeling pretty good getting him 90th, and am feeling quite positive about my entire draft so far. Unfortunately, that all changes after my next pick...

But, sadly, that's all the time I have for now. I will finish off the last 5 rounds of this ESPN draft in my next post. Until then, I hope you enjoy the analysis and that it helps you in drafting or crafting your team into a powerhouse. As always, I greatly appreciate any comments and ad clicks (they actually have some pretty cool stuff on the side nowadays, such as Laker tix!) you can provide. Peace out, ballers!

- by Kobe is King

A Tale of Two Drafts (part 1)

2009-10-21T09:55:00.000-07:00

I'm back, fantasy b-ballers!!!

I must apologize for my extended absence, but I've been working a lot lately, spending time w/ the familia and friends, and had to prepare for and draft in the 2 fantasy b-ball leagues I'm in this year. Since the season is fast approaching (and most of you have probably already drafted your teams), I figured I would switch tact from reviewing the individual NBA teams to covering the 2 drafts I was in, and give in-depth analysis on my team, my thoughts on all the picks in general, and my 2 cents on how you should mold a team given the top tier players you draft in the 1st few rds. Time permitting, I will return to the team previews, and at the minimum give a post listing the fantasy-relevant players from each team with my predicted stats for them.

But for now, on to my tale of 2 drafts! I will 1st review my ESPN draft that just went down this past Sunday. It was an awesome event because we got all 10 guys in the same house (40-year old virgin-style) to conduct an IRL draft on a big dry erase board w/ a simulated lottery (for the 1st 3 picks of the draft) and everything. We played basketball at a local park afterwards, and it was by far the best fantasy draft day I've ever been a part of. I'm the commissioner for that league, which is a $ league and chock full of guys who really enjoy basketball and who are fairly knowledgable about fantasy b-ball. This is the most competitive league I'm in and I would easily take at least 5 of the managers in this league over any 5 fantasy b-ball "experts" you could find out there.

Just to give you a bit of setting, we decided to start anew this year, so this was the 1st "permanent keeper" year. The only players we had left over from last year were 1 rookie/team. To protect the names of the innocent (lol), I will identify each manager by initials. The draft position after the lottery and keepers per manager were as follows:

JB - 1st, Anthony Randolph; HC - 2nd, Eric Gordon; DW - 3rd, Russell Westbrook; JP - 4th, Michael Beasley; SZ - 5th, Jason Thompson; SK - 6th, O.J. Mayo; GB - 7th, Chris Douglas-Roberts (GB, a die-hard Heat fan, had the opportunity to trade draft picks on the cheap for Mario Chalmers before the draft, but strangely decided to roll the dice w/ CDR... it may work out for him given CDR's 26-5-4-4-2 line he put up today); JM - 8th, Brook Lopez (who I attempted in vain to trade for); AM - 9th, Derrick Rose; Me - 10th, Kevin Love (gotta "love" the broken hand at the end of the monster preseason - very good thing for me that we have 1 IR slot in this league - whew!)

So, just to clarify, in our league, we have 2 'any' keepers that you can hold on to forever, and 1 new 'rookie' keeper each yr. So, for example, whoever takes CP3 can hold onto him for life, but whoever takes Blake Griffin will keep him for next yr, and then will probably drop him after that (cuz he would have 2 better other 'any' keepers to hold on to). We are a 9-category H2H league w/ 2 C spots and then the regular 6 G/F slots w/ 2 utility slots, 5 bench slots and 1 IR spot.

OK, for this installment I will review the 1st 5 rounds, and then have additional posts for the remaining rounds of the draft and my Yahoo draft. Now, onto the draft!

Round 1:

JB - 1. LeBron James; HC - 2. Chris Paul; DW - 3. Kevin Durant; JP - 4. Dwayne Wade; SZ - 5. Kobe Bryant; SK - 6. Dirk Nowitzki; GB - 7. Danny Granger; JM - 8. Amare Stoudemire; AM - 9. Deron Williams; Me - 10. DWIGHT HOWARD (wtf?!)

So, the LBJ vs. CP3 #1 pick argument has long been debated. I am firmly in the CP3 camp, because I just think the # of asts and stls he gets w/ the amazing %'s is just too much fantasy value to pass up on for anyone, but I definitely can't fault JB for taking LBJ #1 (who has less injury concerns, and is an all-around monster, esp. if he can bump that FT% closer to 80%).

HC has to feel like a winner for getting CP3 #2, I feel like Durant has to be picked #3 in a lifetime keeper league (for his insane upside), and JP gets great value w/ Wade @ #4 (assuming he can stay healthy again). Now is where things start to get a little weird. Kobe & Dirk are amazing fantasy players, but I expected them to fall a bit in a lifetime keeper league, since they are both 31. However, SZ and SK will be very solid this year, and I suppose they can get another 2-3 good years out of the old-timers.

So, this leaves GB (and myself) as the big winner coming out of round 1, since he gets a young stud, Danny Granger, amazingly at #7. The combo of pts, 3's, stls, blks and ft% just has to make you feel good inside, as long as his knees stay healthy.

Now, JM has a tough decision to make, because he did not expect Dwight to be available at #8, and he had created a draft plan for starting w/ Brook Lopez based off of drafting Amare Stoudemire, and keeping both his %'s strong. Now, personally, I still go Dwight here, and see if I can get Kevin Martin (which he ended up drafting anyways), to keep me competitive in FT%, but JM decided to take the risk on Amare's eye (and return to fantasy eliteness minus Shaq) and stick to his pre-draft blueprint. As long as Amare stays healthy, you can't really fault this pick, but Dwight just seems A LOT safer of a pick to me. So, now the Dwight dilemma shifts to AM, drafting #9, who has Derrick Rose, and also did not think Dwight would be available at this point in the draft. He was targeting Amare and Deron, and decided to own assists w/ Deron, also foregoing the superior H2H value of Dwight. This pick is a bit more suspect to me than JM's, because Deron is simply not rated as highly as Amare or Dwight, but again, I can't fault anyone for sticking to their guns and going with their pre-draft plan. And, in all fairness, nobody will be able to touch AM in assists this year.

So, at this point, the above picture shows what I feel like I'm doing to my beloved ESPN league w/ the #10 pick. I somehow get gift-wrapped the 23-year old most dominant center in the NBA who averages ~ 21-14 + 3 blks/gm. I am kinda shell-shocked because most everyone has Dwight as a top 5 to top 7 pick in H2H leagues, and this is only magnified by the fact that it's a lifetime keeper league. I understand that a lot of people don't want to have the FT% headache (and high TOs), but I happily take on this problem in exchange for an auto-win in rebs, blks and FG%. Unfortunately, I had done zero prep w/ how to draft w/ Dwight (since not in a million yrs did I think he would fall to me - I actually thought I would end up with Bosh and Dirk), so we'll see how the rest of the draft pans out for me...

Round 2:

Me - 11. CHRIS BOSH; AM - 12. Al Jefferson; JM- 13. Brandon Roy; GB - 14. Jose Calderon (huh?!...); SK - 15. Steve Nash; SZ - 16. Pau Gasol; JP - 17. Andre Iguodala; DW - 18. Chauncey Billups; HC - 19. Kevin Garnett; JB - 20. Joe Johnson

So, I went w/ Bosh at #11 for a number of reasons: a) IMHO he was the best player available; b) he is a C and starting off w/ PF Kevin Love (ESPN doesn't give him C-eligibility like Yahoo does), I wanted to make sure to get C's and PG's early; c) he is young - 25 yo; d) he is one of the few C's you can pair w/ Dwight and have a shot @ FT% (e.g. if you also get Kevin Martin later in the draft), esp. if Dwight shoots over 70% FTs this year like Van Gundy expects (btw, I am not holding my breath on that kind of improvement); e) he is in a contract year, so should put up some big #'s.

The only other guy to consider here for me is Al Jeff (who I still may end up trading for if Dwight doesn't improve his FT% this yr), but his injury issues concerned me too much (and I already had a Timberwolf [Love] on my IR). As it is, Al Jeff was a perfect fit for AM at #12, since he needed a C badly, and the only other option would have been Pau. JM stuck to his gameplan, and got Brandon Roy, to keep his %'s up. I like Roy, and he is one of the few guys who could make a significant leap to superstar status this yr, if the Blazers can make some noise in the playoffs.

Then we come to this curious pick - Jose Calderon @ #14 (???). GB explained to me that he loves Calderon, and knew he wouldn't be available when he picked again, so took him now. This is a fair argument, and I am a complete believer in drafting guys you like and enjoy watching (e.g. NOT Boozer), but Calderon does not mesh AT ALL with Granger and CDR (assuming CDR starts and is fantasy relevant, which it's looking like he will be), and Calderon has had a horrible preseason. Granger provides lots of pts and 3's w/ good D stats, so it makes sense to me to surround him w/ high scorers or athletic guys (w/out regard to low FG% since Granger is a high volume-low FG% guy), not someone who only averages ~ 13 pts & 1.3 3pters/gm. I appreciate the need for a top tier PG, but I would definitely have gone w/ Nash or Billups here to complement Granger's strengths more.

I love Nash this year, but SK has to be worried about "Team Geriatric," as his 2 best keeper-level players are 31 & 35. Going forward, I would focus on a young guy with lots of potential to keep over Nash next year.

Above, Pau is wondering what he did to deserve falling all the way to #16. One could easily make a case for taking Pau in the 1st round, so SZ gets the steal of the 2nd round by scooping Pau up here. He is also making it extremely unpleasant for me to play against him this year, as he has the 2 best Lakers (including my non-gay boyfriend, Kobe) on his team.

The rest of Round 2 is fairly solid w/ JP getting Iguodala to complement Wade's (and Thompson's) athleticism, DW getting the last non-risky tier 1 PG in Billups to go w/ Durant and Westbrook, HC getting a nice value pick w/ Garnett at #19, and JB going w/ JJ to get big raw #'s to complement LBJ's all-around production.

Round 3:

JB - 21. Paul Pierce; HC - 22. Gerald Wallace; DW - 23. David West; JP - 24. Devin Harris; SZ - 25. Carmelo Anthony; SK - 26. Troy Murphy; GB - 27. Rajon Rondo (doh! @#$%!); JM - 28. Kevin Martin (doh! @#$%!); AM - 29. Jason Kidd; Me - 30. JOSH SMITH

With LBJ, JJ, and Randolph, I probably would have gone w/ a scoring PG (i.e. Devin Harris) here, but JB gets another good all-around producing SG/SF. You can't fault HC here for taking Gerald, as he does complement CP3, Eric Gordon & KG's defensive stats and %'s, but he also could have solidified winning assists against everyone by taking Kidd here. It's a good pick, but I would be cognizant of the fact that I don't want to waste CP3's asts and get some decent PGs later on in the draft. I'm generally not a big fan of David West, but he doesn't hurt you anywhere. Still, I think DW would have been better off w/ Kevin Martin here, since PFs are easy to come by later, and big time, 3pt shooting scorers (to complement Durant) are not. JP gets another high producer on his squad w/ Harris @ #24 and is starting to look like a pretty high-octane team. You can't argue with Melo @ #25 either, as SZ's team now has a ton of points and good %'s w/ Kobe, Pau, Melo and Thompson. SK finally gets someone under 30 (Troy Murphy, who is 29...), and is pretty darn committed early to winning 3's. Troy seems like a bit of a reach here though (esp. considering it will be extremely difficult for him to duplicate his #'s from last season), and I may have gone w/ David Lee instead to meet my C need. But Troy is def. a solid #1 C option (esp. for SK's apparent small ball strategy).

So, I'm feeling pretty good here after pick #26, because my top 3 targets for my next pick (KMart, Rondo & Kidd, in that order) are still available, and Caron Butler & David Lee have not been drafted yet, so I'm thinking at least 1, and possibly even 2, of these guys will fall to me. So inevitably, the next 3 picks are...

Ouch! There goes the best PG in the NBA for my specific team build. I don't care about 3's, TO's & FT% (given that KMart gets drafted next), and Rondo is an absolute BEAST at everything else (i.e. a triple-double machine this year). The more frustrating thing was that again, this pick makes no sense to pair w/ Granger. I know GB loves Rondo IRL as a fan (similar to Calderon), but w/ Rondo & Calderon, he has effectively self-neutralized his initial strength in points and 3's that he had from Granger. Now, I'm not saying Rondo should have fallen to me (since I'm pretty sure AM would have taken him 2 picks later), but I just fail to see where GB is going w/ his team. Oh well, we'll see if it works out or not. :0/

I love Kevin Martin as a fantasy player, and kept him as a keeper this past off-season in my Yahoo league. He has by far the most positive FT% contribution of any player in the NBA (in case you're wondering, Dirk, Billups, Granger & Durant round out the top 5). He also pours in the points and 3's, but doesn't do much of anything else, and is an injury risk. With Martin, I could compete for FT%, but with him gone, I decided to completely throw the category. This is an interesting pick for JM because he was already strong in FT%, and could have gone w/ Kidd to make use of Roy's asts, but apparently he knew he would pick up poor FT-shooting C's later on and wanted to keep his points strong, so this pick made sense, and he eventually realized he needed to throw asts anyways.

Next up was the guy with the most pure fantasy value left on the board, Jason Kidd, and he just so happened to fit in perfectly w/ AM's intended assists dominance.

So, with Kidd gone as well (yup - that was an 0/3 for me in 3 consecutive picks, folks), I was not feeling that great about my non-core stats and needed to make a decision about what direction to head in. I decided I would have to throw 3's and go for pts, asts, and stls in addition to maintaining my superstrong rebs, blks and fg%. I never really pay attention to TO's, since I have a tendency to stream players a lot throughout the season (and generally draft high TO players, since I want my fantasy players to have the ball in their hands as much as possible), so I did not take this into consideration much. So, when you remove 3's, TO's & FT% from the equation, Josh Smith was far and away the most valuable player remaining, and really makes me unbeatable in blocks.

Round 4:

Me - 31. MONTA ELLIS; AM - 32. Caron Butler; JM- 33. Tim Duncan; GB - 34. David Lee; SK - 35. Gilbert Arenas; SZ - 36. Tony Parker; JP - 37. Nene; DW - 38. Vince Carter; HC - 39. Andris Biedrins; JB - 40. Jameer Nelson

So, the PGs were starting to run very dry, and Monta fits really well into my team plan (as well as providing the always valuable PG/SG eligibility combo), so this pick (@ #31) was a necessary one.

AM again went for the best remaining value with Butler @ #32 (I had him ranked #22 on my pre-draft cheat sheet), and JM caught me off guard with Duncan over David Lee. I guess he made a firm decision to go after blocks, since he had Lopez & Amare, but Duncan is highly unreliable (Pop is gonna rest him as much as humanly possible, and Timmie is gonna have a decent amount of random DNPs) and doesn't play many minutes at the most important time of the fantasy season - the playoffs. This pick will help JM during the season, but I think he's gonna regret it come playoff time. GB gets great value on David Lee @ #34, and it seems like his plan is to overcome Granger's bad FG% at the expense of his point, 3pt and block value. I actually like SK's pick a lot, because Arenas is 27 and has the potential to return to a top 20 fantasy player (so SK could keep Arenas instead of Nash next year). It also bolsters his asts, pts and 3's even more.

And then...

SZ got caught with his pants down! #36 is WAAAAAAY too early for Tony Parker in fantasy b-ball (I had him ranked at #64...). SZ explained that he got anxious about not having a PG yet, but I would much rather take Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson or Baron Davis than Parker. SZ had a solid draft going before this pick, but as we shall see, he recovers some of the significant value lost on this pick later on the draft.

JP picked up Nene because he needed a C, and you can't argue too much with the pick, although a like Biedrins a bit better (but I guess JP liked the higher FT% over the increased rebounds). DW got a great value pick w/ Vince Carter @ #38 (esp. if you take into consideration that Pierce, who is very similar to VC was taken @ #21). HC got his 1st C, and the best one still on the board, w/ Biedrins, and then JB also met a positional need w/ Jameer, who is a very solid fantasy PG.

Round 5:

JB - 41. Elton Brand; HC - 42. LaMarcus Aldridge; DW - 43. Andrea Bargnani; JP - 44. Andrew Bogut (huh?!...); SZ - 45. Jason Richardson; SK - 46. Rashard Lewis (steal!); GB - 47. Mehmet Okur; JM - 48. Al Harrington; AM - 49. Ben Gordon; Me - 50. ANDREW BYNUM

Elton Brand is a high-risk, high-reward player this season, but since he only has PF-eligibility for ESPN, JB probably would have been better off taking a C here (like Bargnani, Bynum or Horford), since he had none on his roster to this point. Apparently HC thought Aldridge had C eligibility, and made a pretty significant positional mistake by taking him over Bargnani. LaMarcus is a great fantasy player, but the top level C's run out quickly at this point in the draft, and I feel like frequently you must forego the best player to meet your positional needs. DW didn't make the same mistake, and quickly scooped up Bargnani, who I love on his team. Then another C was drafted, but not one you would expect...

Bogut?! Wtf?! This pick was actually VERY fortunate for me, because JP asked me during the draft who was better between Bynum and Bogut. Obviously, Bynum is better, but I answered semi-truthfully that it was likely too early for either one of them at this pick in the draft (since most people aren't nearly as high on Bynum as I am this year), and they both had injury risk - Bynum's knees and Bogut's back. I personally had Bynum @ #40 & Bogut @ #107, so it was a coup for me for Bynum to slip past JP. JP probably should have gone w/ Horford to try and keep his FT% semi-respectable (even though Harris was his only good FT% shooter up to this point), but he was OK w/ getting Bogut, so, for JP's sake, I hope Bogut stays healthy all season. And if Bynum gets injured (e.g. he already has a shoulder strain), then a healthy Bogut is better than an injured Bynum.

SZ follows up w/ Richardson, who is a solid SG (esp. now that the Suns are back to run-n-gun), but maybe a tad early given that Ray Allen was still available.

Then SK gets one of the biggest steals of the draft to this point w/ Rashard @ #46. Sure, he's suspended for the 1st 10 gms this season (tsk, tsk - gotta lay off those 'roids), but he is easily a top 30 player and we have an IR spot in our league! In hindsight, I was actually kind of bummed that SK got Shard, because he could have single-handedly kept me competitive in 3's this year (and he really makes SK insane at 3's).

Two 3-pt shooting bigs went next, and, while I like Okur a lot, since Al Harrington no longer has C-eligbility in ESPN, I would have preferred Charlie Villanueva to Harrington. But as it turns out, JM got CV on the comeback anyways, so it worked out well for him. AM got a solid scoring SG in Gordon, but I'm quite shocked he didn't take Ray Allen (or Manu - where's the love?) instead, since he loves the guy. Funny enough, he too got the other player (Ray) on the comeback, so no loss here.

Finally, I was as happy as Drew was at this Playboy party when Bynum made it to me at pick #50 (OK, well, maybe not THAT happy). He fits in PERFECTLY w/ my Dwight Howard-led team, and I would bet $ that, if he stays fairly healthy (i.e. plays 68+ gms) he will make the All-Star team this year. It is not much of a reach to suggest 18+ points, 9+ rebs & 2+ blocks w/ solid %'s for him this year, which would make him one of the elite C's (and overall players) in fantasy b-ball this season. If he does do that, I would even consider trading Bosh for value this season (to make a strong run at the championship), and keeping Bynum (who is 22) w/ Dwight as my keepers for future years. Maybe...

OK, that's all for now. Stay tuned for the last 9 rounds and then my Yahoo draft after that. I've had a lot of hits so far on this blog, and I'm very happy that it has drawn significant interest. Please tell any of your friends who play fantasy b-ball to check out the site, and, as always, ad clicks are much appreciated. GL HF w/ your teams this season and please leave comments if you have any topics you would like me to cover (in addition to team previews) in the future.

Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Los Angeles Lakers

2009-10-02T20:33:00.001-07:00

How you feelin' fantasy b-ballers?!

The time has finally arrived for me to cover my wondrous Los Angeles Lakers! In honor of the NBA champions, I will cover all 13 Lakers players who have guaranteed contracts, despite the fact that they may not be fantasy relevant (sorry, Sun Yue, you just missed the cut - literally). This also marks the end of me determining what team I cover. From now on, I will analyze whatever team you request of me (please just leave your request in the comments) or no further teams, if there is no interest... (I'm hoping/assuming this is not the case). Wes has already requested the Trail Blazers, so I will work my mojo on them next, but after that, my world is yours.

www.basketballmonster.com will have their customizable projections section available next week, so I may be out of commission for a couple days, while I enter in my projected stats and finalize my cheat sheet for my upcoming drafts. In the meantime, the preseason is about to be in full swing, but apparently Danny Granger thinks that the regular season has already started (he had 27 pts, 2 3's, 11-12 FTs, 3 rebs, 4 asts, 3 stls & 1 blk in 25 mins against the Bulls on Friday) - take it easy there cowboy! While the preseason, like the summer league, must be taken with a grain of salt, I think it definitely sheds some valuable light on how some players will perform during the regular season (and how many minutes they will get).

Also big ups to GMTR (thanks, Nels!) @ http://givemetherock.com/, who added me as one of their 'Coaches' (see the link on the left side of the website). They have a very intriguing mock draft going on right now, with the first 2 rounds posted thus far. Some of the stranger picks so far have been Gerald Wallace in the 1st round, and LaMarcus Aldridge in the 2nd (it's your world, Nels - lol)... now, I love both of these guys' games, but that is just too early to be drafting them. Otherwise, the picks have been pretty solid so far (although the first few rounds are generally the easiest to draft).

GMTR also has a link to another mock draft (http://thefantasysportschannel.com/blogs/?p=185), which I only mention, because it's the single "best" (imho) mock draft I've seen to date, with mostly solid picks by all the managers across the board. The "experts" in the draft include Steve Alexander (from Rotoworld), Matt Buser and a few guys from RotoExperts and Rotowire. These guys could outdraft most of the "experts" out there from ESPN, Yahoo, etc. any day. Given the strong showing by the McKeown's, I may have been a bit harsh on Rotowire in the past. However, it doesn't seem their published player analysis matches their draft skill, because I was definitely impressed with some of their picks (e.g. Salmons at pick 74 - wtf?! What a steal!)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Contrary to what some people (and by people, I mean "stupid people") think, Ron Artest is a significant upgrade over Trevor Ariza. Ariza has a good playoff run (after a mediocre regular season, mind you), and all of a sudden, he's the best thing since sliced bread, and his jack-ass agent (who also unfortunately represents Andrew Bynum) thinks he's worth $50 million over 5 years. I kind of feel bad for Ariza (since his agent got him banished to the NBA wasteland that is Houston), but I'm happy that Kobe and the Lakers finally got Artest, a player we've wanted in Lakerland for a long time now. And, if Bynum can stay healthy this year and regularly play like the brief glimpses he's shown us in the past, it's almost like the Lakers added a new, near All-Star level C to the squad for free. They convincingly beat the Orlando Magic last year, but the Magic, Cavs and Celtics have all improved significantly, so while I don't think the Lakers will have that tough of a time getting back to the NBA Finals, it's gonna be a dogfight for the Larry O'Brien trophy with whoever represents the East.

Out with the old: Trevor Ariza (who can thank the worst agent in the league, David Lee, for having to leave the city of angels) and Sun Yue (bit of a bad read there by Kupchak and the scouting staff)

In with the new: Ron Artest (woot!)

Laker Girls:

Since this analysis is following up the Heat, I thought you may be curious to see the 09-10 Laker Girls. Sadly, they're not much to look at, but, in their defense, they are an actual dance troupe, as opposed to a collection of insanely gorgeous models that can move their legs a bit (i.e. the Miami Heat dancers). Still, if I had to choose, I'm thinkin' I would go with the Mia... You catch my drift - on to the basketball!

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown:

The Lakers appear like they will have a PG-by-committee arrangement this year.

Derek Fisher is the incumbent starter, and hero of many a Laker playoff game (including in the Finals last year), but his defense is horrendous and he made me want to pull out my non-existent hair during the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, as I watched Deron Williams, Aaron Brooks, and Chauncey Billups blow by him like he was a practice cone. On one hand, I recognize what he has done for this franchise, and he has earned the right to continue starting, despite his deteriorating (and now inferior) basketball skills, but on the other hand, I may seriously burst an artery in my brain if I have to watch another season of him playing 25+ mins/gm and getting burned on D like a dry Southern Californian forest.

Jordan Farmar should have won the starting PG job by the end of last year, but an early-season injury halted his momentum, and Shannon Brown showed up in the VladRad salary dump trade and surprised everyone with his play. Consider this: in the 1st month of last season Farmar averaged 9.1 pts, 0.7 3pters, 3.2 rebs, 3 asts, 1.4 stls and 0.3 blks in 20.6 mins/gm. Sure, he had stinky percentages (43% FG and 66% FT), but if he played at that pace and got a few more minutes, he would definitely be worthy of a roster spot (think Rafer Alston kind of value). Sadly, he has never translated his IRL confidence to the NBA court on a consistent basis.

Shannon Brown was the big surprise of last year for the Lakers, as he was basically a toss-in to match up salaries so we could dump VladRad. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that he is way more valuable to the Lakers than Adam Morrison is, and I am very interested to see what role he carves out for himself in his first full year with the Lakers (and things will get even more interesting when Fisher retires in a year or 2). Brown is easily the best defender of the 3 PGs, is the most physical and athletic, and actually has a pretty decent 3pt shot - kinda sounds like he should be the starter, huh?...

Unfortunately, none of these guys are draftable as of now. They will all get a decent amount of run, but none of them will get enough minutes to put up big enough stats. The only way I can see this changing is if Farmar wins the starting job outright (which I can't realistically see happening, given the level of respect Phil has for Fisher) and gets 25+ mins/gm.

Kobe Bryant:

The King of the NBA is a quintessential winner. People mistakenly call LeBron "King James," but last time I checked a king is defined as the ruler of his domain. And, there is no mistaking the fact that Kobe is the current ruler of the NBA. Once LBJ stops choking and gets a ring (those lil shiny things that Kobe has 4 of), then you can consider calling him the king - until then, KOBE IS KING! The Lakers are an overall improved squad from last year, and Bynum and Artest will take even more of the offensive load off of Kobe than Pau did last year. This means less points for Kobe, but his fantasy value should stay fairly steady with increased assists and efficiency (i.e. better %'s and less TOs). He is still a top 6 NBA player statistically, and is as dependable as they come in the fantasy game.

09-10 proj. = 26 pts, 1.5 3pters, 5.1 rebs, 5.1 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.5 blks, 2.6 TOs, 46.5% FG, 85% FT, plays 82 gms (target with the 5th-7th pick)

Sasha Vujacic:

The hair is gone, and hopefully so are the bricks that Sasha was chucking up on a regular basis last year (38.7% FG from someone who lights it up on the regular in practice is pathetic). He should be ignored from a fantasy perspective (especially with Brown and Morrison possibly eating into some of his minutes this year), but it is always fun to watch the Machine get hot and ruffle some star guard's feathers with his all-up-in-your-grill defense.

SF

Ron Artest:

Ron-Ron is the big question mark this season for the Lake Show. Personally, I love the pick-up, and think he will do just fine this season. He usually had his head on straight last year in Houston (except when he was missing all the team buses for Game 7 of the playoff series against the Lakers, while wearing only underwear), and I am confident Phil, Kobe and Lamar (his long-time buddy) will keep him in line. He brings a much bigger offensive game than Ariza did, but his fantasy value will inevitably drop this year on such an offensively loaded team. On the bright side, his defensive stats should bump back up from last year's lows to closer to his career averages, his 3's should stay pretty high (since he'll see a lot more wide open shots), and his efficiency should improve significantly.

09-10 proj. = 15.3 pts, 1.9 3pters, 5 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.9 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.9 TOs, 44% FG, 74% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 65th-75th pick)

Luke Walton: LUUUUUUUKE! I am a big fan of Luke Walton, especially after he dominated Pietrus in game 1 of the NBA Finals last year (which I was fortunate enough to see live at Staples Center). He is the most unselfish player the Lakers have, and is the glue that keeps the 2nd unit productive. Unfortunately for him, now he is sitting on the bench behind Artest, instead of Ariza, so minutes will be even more difficult to come by.

Adam Morrison: The Gonzaga alum had a very good summer league and guess what? It matters not. The only way Morrison sees the court this year is if he steals Sasha's minutes (by outplaying him in practice) or the Lakers are up by 30. He is the classic example of a college star whose game does not translate well to the NBA.

Pau Gasol:

The "intimidating" Spaniard (what, the picture above doesn't frighten you?) is fresh of a Euro Basket MVP and championship, to go along with his NBA championship. For being as soft as he is, he manages to put up some solid big man numbers, but his true fantasy value lies in his high assists and percentages from the center position. I have to admit that I am a bit weary of the elder Gasol, just because he has played so much basketball non-stop over the past few years. It's also very possible that Bynum and Artest eat into some of Pau's offensive production. However, regardless of these potential negatives, Kobe's favorite big man should still be drafted in the early 2nd round, because he is too skilled to not find a way to produce.

09-10 proj. = 18 pts, 0 3pters, 9 rebs, 3.6 asts, 0.5 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.8 TOs, 57% FG, 79% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 12th-15th pick)

Lamar Odom:

Mr. Kardashian apparently devoted his entire offseason to becoming the #1 media star on the Lakers, outdistancing crazy Artest and even the King himself, Kobe Bryant. He scared Laker fans to death for several weeks by holding out on re-signing his contract, and allowing his retarded agent (2nd in stupidity only to Ariza's agent) to almost get him shipped out to a non-contender (Miami) for LESS $. He then followed that up by dating the wildebeest of the Kardashian clan (OK, I'm so, so sorry - totally J/K Khloe - I actually don't think you're all that bad looking) for a month, and then marrying her (well, I don't think they're actually legally married yet) in a star-studded event that must have had the atmosphere of a Cirque du Soleil show. Basketball-wise, it's hard to get excited about Odom's prospects since Artest will take away some shots, and Bynum's progression should limit Odom's minutes. However, Odom is too physically talented to just fade into fantasy irrelevance, and should still be a decent source of rebs, stls and blks.

09-10 proj. = 10.5 pts, 0.4 3pters, 8 rebs, 2.6 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.1 blks, 1.8 TOs, 49% FG, 65% FT, plays 78 gms (target with the 90th-105th pick)

Josh Powell: I am truly miffed why so many Lakers fans are so down on this guy, because I actually like his contribution to the team, and think he could be a Haslem/Landry 'hustle' type of player if he got enough minutes. Unfortunately for him, he'll have to be content with collecting rings on the bench, because he has too many talented bigs ahead of him on the depth chart.

C

Andrew Bynum:

Thankfully, this kid is only almost 22 years old (his birthday is a day before mine!), so his knee injuries have a chance to be a distant memory in a year or 2. I REALLY want Bynum to stay healthy this year, but I must thank him for his contribution to my ESPN fantasy championship last year (if he stayed healthy, I'm pretty sure I would have lost in the finals to team Day Laborers). Let's revisit a very happy time in my (and Bynum's) life - Jan. 7 - 30, 2009: 'Drew' (as Phil likes to call him) played 12 very healthy games during that time period and posted 20.8 pts, 8.7 rebs, and 2 blks on 61% FG and 75% FT in 31.8 mins/gm. Ladies & gentleman, that was good for 21st (!) on the BBM player rater for those 24 days, and I see no reason that Bynum can't get close to averaging that in the next year or 2. Unfortunately, you're taking a big risk by trusting those knees, so for my sake (and all Lakers fans) and yours if you draft him, I pray he can finally make it through a full season as a healthy starter.

09-10 proj. = 15.5 pts, 0 3pters, 9 rebs, 1.6 asts, 0.4 stls, 2 blks, 1.8 TOs, 58% FG, 71% FT, plays 65 gms (target with the 55th-65th pick)

D.J. Mbenga:

Mbenga Time! No, Mbenga does not have any fantasy (or IRL) b-ball relevance, but his grill is hilarious to me. I mean, I'm sure he's a very nice fella in person, but he looks like a cross between Shrek and Quasimodo - LOL!

So, all is as it should be in the NBA world, as the Lakers are once again vying for back-to-back championships. Phil is all-in for another go-round, and, while I hope the Lake Show wins it all again this year, it wouldn't be horrible if they lost in the Finals if it means Phil retires and we sign Byron Scott long-term. Don't get me wrong - Phil is a great coach and I would love to see him post an unprecedented 4-time 3-peat. I just think Byron is a great basketball coach, and am worried that, if we don't sign him next year, he will sign a long-term contract with the Hornets or some other team. Regardless of who the coach is, for the next 4-5 years (which is how long the Lakers should still have Kobe, Artest, Pau, Bynum and Odom on the roster), anything less than a championship will have to be considered a failure.

My next post will be per the 1st team analysis request, and is actually the team I fear most in the playoffs as a Laker fan - the Portland Trailblazers. As Wes said, they are a legitimate up-and-coming young team, and seem to always have the Lakers' number during the regular season. Please leave your comments with who you would like to see following the Blazers, and as always, I greatly appreciate the support you provide by clicking on the ads (and perusing the sponsors' goods as you see fit). Peace out, ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Miami Heat

2009-10-01T23:18:00.000-07:00

What it is fantasy b-ballers?!

My apologies to anyone confused about me going out of alphabetical order, but I wanted to post what you all want to read (i.e. which is probably not anything to do with the Grizzlies, Bucks or Kings - lol). Following this Heat post (enjoy, Geoff!) will be the Lakers team analysis and then whatever teams you want to read about - please just leave a comment with your requests (like Wes did for the Trail Blazers). Just FYI, NBA TV is showing Laker training camp now (woot! can you say "back-to-back champions"?) and NBA preseason games are underway (the Jazz just gave the Nuggets a drubbing, but it didn't seem like George Karl was too interested in the game).

Please continue to support my blog by checking out the ads, which I believe are starting to get more tailored to basketball and fantasy sports. As long as I keep registering regular ad hits, I will keep the fantasy posts coming throughout the preseason and the year.

MIAMI HEAT

Pat Riley did just about nothing to improve the Heat team this offseason, which can't sit well with Dwayne Wade or the Miami fans. This doesn't seem like a prudent move since Wade is an unrestricted FA next year, and, as Wade goes, the Heat go. If D.Wade plays 75+ gms this season the Heat will likely earn the 5th or 6th spot in the Eastern conference again, but if he plays 55 or fewer games, they will be lottery-bound (as in the 07-08 season when they "earned" the #2 draft pick). The Heat have some promising young talent with Chalmers & Beasley (assuming they can drop their weed fetish), but are going to need to retool at the big positions in the next couple years if they want to be a championship-caliber team again.

Out with the old: Jamario Moon (who now gets to sit on the bench behind LBJ) and Mark Blount (who the Timberwolves have given permission to seek employment elsewhere)

In with the new: Quentin Richardson (so, in other words, nothing...)

The Miami Heat Dancers:

This is a fantasy b-ball blog, and I try to stay focused on the task at hand, by I felt the need to recognize the accomplishments of the Miami Heat dancers (http://www.nba.com/heat/dance/index.html), since they have far surpassed the success of the actual basketball team. This dance squad has won the NBA's best dance team award for the past 4 years, and it is not difficult to see why.

Let me focus your attention towards the perfectly sculpted dancer on the left of the bottom picture, KENYA - I keyed in on her because of her name (I am half Kenyan), but this woman is just ridiculous, nutz hot! (check out http://www.nba.com/heat/gallery/hpg0809__dancers_kenya_081027_pic18_1.html to fully appreciate what I'm talking about). While the vast majority of the Heat dancers, past and present, have been gorgeous, I think Kenya easily takes the cake. OK, sorry about that distraction (I couldn't help myself) - back to basketball!

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Mario Chalmers:

The 2nd year guard was a bit of a project last year, but has firmly gained Pat Riley's endorsement as the undisputed starting PG (I mean, the only current PG backup is Chris Quinn - seriously, Riley?...) this year and should see upwards of 35 mins/gm. Chalmers seems to be a bit underestimated in fantasy circles, because his IRL contribution doesn't match the significant fantasy boost he provides from 3's, assists and steals. He needs to improve upon his percentages (and he should, the more years he plays in the league), but is a respectable 2nd or 3rd PG to have on your squad.

09-10 proj. = 11 pts, 1.6 3pters, 3.2 rebs, 5.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.2 TOs, 43% FG, 79% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 65th-75th pick)

SG

Dwayne Wade:

D.Wade may be even more important to the Heat than LBJ is to the Cavs. You take Wade of this team (which very well could happen this offseason) and you have one of the worst teams the league has seen in the past decade. Simply put, Wade is a fantasy (and IRL) beast, and was undoubtedly the 3rd best fantasy player in the league last year. You cannot get even close to Wade's 2+ steals and 1+ blocks from the SG spot (and he has frickin' PG-eligibility in Yahoo leagues!). It all comes down to health with him, but having worked out with Tim Grover (at ATTACK athletics the past couple offseasons), I'm fairly confident he can stay healthy enough to play 70+ games this season. It is even fathomable that, if Wade bumps his 3's and FT% a tad (which he is definitely capable of doing) he could finish 09-10 as the 2nd-rated fantasy player in the NBA (behind CP3 and ahead of LBJ).

09-10 proj. = 29 pts, 1.1 3pters, 5 rebs, 7.4 asts, 2.1 stls, 1.2 blks, 3.5 TOs, 49% FG, 77% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 2nd-4th pick, Kevin Durant being the only 3rd player I could see someone reasonably drafting ahead of Wade)

Daequan Cook & Quentin Richardson: The Heat are overloaded with sub-par back-up SG/SFs (you can throw Dorell Wright and Yakhouba Diawara in the lot with these two as well), but I get the feeling they will all simply cancel each others' fantasy value out. Of this group, I predict Cook will have the most value, but even he won't do more than hit some 3's, so don't bother drafting any of these guys.

SF

Michael Beasley:

This poor guy's life is really screwed up, and it's a shame, because he has so much raw basketball talent that he would have (I guess he still could...) had a shot at becoming a perennial All-Star. He is one more "weed strike" away from a 5-game NBA suspension and I would not at all be surprised if he relapsed back into his offseason depression (he clearly has serious psychiatric issues) at some point this season (especially if he loses out on the starting job). There is an intense training camp competition going on right now between Beasley and Jones for the starting SF spot, with Jones bringing much needed 3pt shooting to the starting line-up, and Beasley bringing a better all-around game. But I think that, even if he loses out on the starting job, Beasley will be the more valuable of the two (playing ~30 mins/gm), and should significantly improve upon his performance from last season.

09-10 proj. = 16.7 pts, 0.6 3pters, 6.7 rebs, 1.4 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.7 blks, 1.9 TOs, 48% FG, 80% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 95th-115th pick)

James Jones:

Jones hits 3's and plays decent D, which is exactly what the Heat could use from their starting SF. As a result, there is an outside chance that he could steal the starting job from Beasley. However, his fantasy game is seriously limited, and I wouldn't use anything earlier than a last round pick on him. If we revisit the 05-06 season (with Phoenix), we find that James put up 9.3 pts with 1.5 3's, 0.5 stls and 0.7 blks in 23.6 minutes, which he could easily approach this year with the Heat (if he starts). Even if that production is not quite draft-worthy, I imagine Jones will be on several managers' rosters intermittently throughout the fantasy season.

09-10 proj. = 8.8 pts, 1.7 3pters, 3.4 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.5 stls, 0.7 blks, 0.5 TOs, 39% FG, 87% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 140th-160th pick)

PF

Udonis Haslem:

Ole reliable is a very consistent, very vanilla PF in both fantasy b-ball and IRL. He rebounds and scores with solid percentages, and... that's it! Don't expect Haslem to help you anywhere else. However, since Beasley will see more time at SF than PF, Haslem's starting job and minutes are safe for now. Guys like Haslem (and Varejao and Landry) are the prime reason that you do not need to worry too much about falling behind on rebounds early in fantasy drafts.

09-10 proj. = 10.3 pts, 0 3pters, 8.2 rebs, 1.1 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.1 TOs, 50% FG, 76% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 145th-160th pick)

C

Jermaine O'Neal:

Sadly, JO is now just a shadow of his former self, and one of the most overpaid players in the league (raking in an absurd $23 million this season). He is a regular EXTREME injury risk and has let many a fantasy team down over the past 5 seasons. All of those negatives being said, he can still get you 2 blks/gm and a few points, which makes him worth taking a late flyer on (and you can usually find him still available late in a draft). Just don't count on him being around when you need him (e.g. during the fantasy playoffs).

09-10 proj. = 13.2 pts, 0 3pters, 5.8 rebs, 2 asts, 0.4 stls, 2 blks, 1.9 TOs, 47% FG, 75% FT, plays 68 gms (target with the 110th-130th pick)

All in all, it's hard to get very excited about the Miami Heat, given that Riley has been as active as a stuporous sloth this offseason. Wade will likely single-handedly carry the Heat to the playoffs again this year, but there is absolutely no way they are making it past the first round. If they can re-sign Wade next year and replace O'Neal and Haslem with some worthwhile young bigs, they have some promise (due to the young weed brothers), but if I was a fan, I wouldn't put too much faith in Riley (sorry, Geoff).

Next up is the defending NBA champions, my Los Angeles Lakers! I will try to be as objective and unbiased as possible, but I give you the disclaimer now that I have a huge man-crush on Kobe Bryant & company. After that, I will cover whatever team you peeps vote for - please just leave a comment (1 vote so far for the Trail Blazers). And, as always, please support this blog by checking out the ads, so I can keep bringing you the 411. Peace out, ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Charlotte Bobcats

2009-09-29T18:30:00.000-07:00

Yo yo fantasy b-ballers!

Next up on the docket is the up-and-coming (?) Charlotte Bobcats. Before we get into them, I just want to give you some fantasy resource news updates. Basketballmonster.com (who were gracious enough to hook me up with a subscription renewal) is up and running for the new season, complete with their player stat projections for the upcoming year - the cost is $24.95, but if you are a competitive fantasy b-baller (especially if you are in a $ league, like I am) it is money well spent. Also, Rotoworld is really in full swing now with all the training camp/preseason news, so I'd pay attention to the reports on injuries and position battles. NBA TV (on the actual television and online) is starting to show some training camps (Denver Nuggets right now), so you can see position battles and how the players look first hand. The first preseason game is this Thursday, Oct. 1 (Nuggets-Jazz) and I'm excited to finally see some live game action!

So, in jest, one of my buddies requested I skip all these "crappy" teams and go straight to the Miami Heat (his favorite team). While I was trying to have some order to this blog (i.e. cover the teams alphabetically), I actually like the idea of posting based off of reader's interest, so next post will be the Heat, then obviously I have to knock out the Lakers (MY team!), and then it will be up to you what teams you want me to analyze. So please leave a comment over the next 3 posts (this one, Miami, LA) with your vote for what team you want me to cover next.

Again, if you enjoy/learn something from these posts, please support me by checking out some of the ads/links on the side - thanks! OK, well, that's all I can think of for now, so let's get into MJ's squad.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Larry Brown has really went to work re-tooling this team to his rigid pre-set specifications, and they actually had a decent late-season run last year, but fell short of the playoffs. They randomly traded a reliable, albeit undersized, double-double machine (Emeka Okafor), for an oft-injured offensively-challenged career underachiever (Tyson Chandler). Larry Brown prefers tall, lanky centers, but he may regret the move when his new big man sits out a dozen games this year. Besides that, the Cats are pretty similar to last year's team, but with a touch more depth. They have an outside chance at the playoffs this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Out with the old: Emeka Okafor (huh?....), Sean May (a LOT of dead weight), and Juwan Howard

In with the new: Tyson Chandler (can you say short-term $ saver?), Flip Murray, and Gerald Henderson (#12 pick in the draft)

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Raymond Felton:

For some inexplicable reason, Felton decided to just sign the Bobcats' qualifying offer, instead of agreeing to a 4-5 yr deal, which Charlotte was strangely willing to offer. I think he will seriously regret that decision, once D.J. proves to be a capable starting PG this year and MJ & company decide not to re-sign Felton next year. But, for this season, I expect Felton to put up fairly similar stats to last yr, though he may lose a couple minutes to D.J. and Flip.

09-10 proj. = 14 pts, 0.7 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 6.7 asts, 1.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 41% FG, 80% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 75th-100th pick, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league, and if you get punished more by the high TOs)

D.J. Augustin:

This kid is exciting and fun to watch play - now we just need Larry Brown to give him enough minutes to really show what he can do. We all know Larry hates rookies, so now that D.J.'s a 2nd-yr player, hopefully he gets more run. I'm pretty sure even MJ has the management common sense to firmly install D.J. as the PG of the future for the Bobcats, but this is a guy who drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, so anything's possible. Draft D.J. for his 3pt and FT contribution, and hope that Felton or Raja get moved to open up more minutes for the young PG.

09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 1.8 3pters, 2.1 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0 blks, 1.9 TOs, 43.5% FG, 88.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 115th-135th pick)

SG

Raja Bell:

Reports are out that the Bobcats are looking to move Raja and his $5.25 million expiring contract. Considering they just signed Flip and want to give D.J. more minutes, it makes a lot of sense to trade him for some more depth at the PF spot. So, if he gets moved before your fantasy draft, upgrade D.J. and Flip significantly; if he doesn't, he'll play less minutes than last year (likely ~31-32) and basically only be good for some 3's. Either way, there is not too much to be excited about for this defensive-oriented 33-year old.

09-10 proj. = 12 pts, 1.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.2 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.2 TOs, 44% FG, 86.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 145th-160th pick)

Flip Murray: As the team is currently configured, Flip doesn't look like he'll be able to carve out any more than the 24.7 mins/gm he got with the Hawks last year (if he even gets that many minutes). He puts up inferior numbers to Raja across the board, so unless Raja gets traded, Flip just isn't quite productive enough to warrant a draft pick.

SF

Gerald Wallace:

Aptly named (as can be seen by the above picture), Crash is annually one of the highest risk-highest reward guys in the NBA. Despite suffering broken ribs and a pneumothorax (collapsed lung) last year, this super-human stud was able to play 71 very valuable games - I know because he helped carry both of my fantasy squads to the league title. There are not too many guys in the league who are more valuable at getting steals and blocks, and with Emeka gone, you have to think Gerald is gonna help pick up some of the offensive slack in the post (since Tyson's offensive skills are seriously limited). I may just have a sentimental attachment to the guy, but I have a feeling Crash will have a very big season if he can stay fairly healthy and keep his FT% up.

09-10 proj. = 17 pts, 0.5 3pters, 7.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.9 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.2 TOs, 48% FG, 77% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 15th-30th pick)

PF

Boris Diaw:

The Frenchman had a fantasy revival last season after being traded to Charlotte, and posted his best stats since the 05-06 season (with Phoenix). Larry Brown trusts Diaw to be a facilitator or a scorer as needed, and, without a quality backup PF behind him (Larry Brown has already talked about Gerald possibly getting some minutes at PF), Diaw is gonna get plenty of minutes again this season (~37/gm). He puts up very good 3's and assists for a PF and for some reason is regularly undervalued in most fantasy drafts - don't make the same mistake.

09-10 proj. = 15.3 pts, 1.1 3pters, 6 rebs, 5 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.8 TOs, 50% FG, 69% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-100th pick, again, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league +/- TOs)

C

Tyson Chandler:

CP3 wasn't happy to lose Tyson (one of his best friends), but I don't expect Charlotte will be too happy with what Chandler brings to the table (or the lack thereof), when compared to Okafor. In New Orleans, Tyson benefited profoundly from CP3's pinpoint lob passes, was the only blocker on the Hornets (and still only managed a measly 1.2 blks/gm) and really only had to compete with David West for rebounds. Now he has Felton passing to him, and Wallace and Diaw rebounding the ball and preventing slashers from driving the lane. When you throw in his recent injury issues, it becomes clear that there are a LOT of other fantasy centers that you should target before looking Tyson's way on draft day.

09-10 proj. = 8.8 pts, 0 3pters, 9.3 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.4 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 56.5% FG, 59% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 130th-150th pick)

DeSagana Diop & Nazr Mohammed: One of these guys is gonna get decent minutes WHEN Tyson gets injured, but it's just a matter of who is Larry Brown's favorite at the moment. However, neither of them is going to put up very compelling production, and neither will do much of anything when Chandler is playing. As such, I cannot recommend drafting either one of these guys, but one of them may be worth a temporary pick-up sometime during the season.

So, that does it for the Bobcats. They improved their SG depth, but took a step back at the C position and don't have much quality depth at the forward spots. I can't really see them doing any better than the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, so if I were MJ and Larry Brown, I would hand the PG keys over to D.J. sooner than later. Unfortunately, if you're a fan, they seem kind of stuck in a rut of mediocrity (without a clear path out), so expect several more years of barely missing the playoffs to come.

As stated above, I'm gonna mix things up a bit and go out of alphabetical for the next post, the Miami Heat. I will follow that up with the Los Angeles Lakers (woot!) and then after that, it's up to your preference. Please leave a comment with what team you would like to see after the Lakers, and I will just go with the most requested. As always, thanks for the interest (and comments), and please click on some ads (and purchase stuff if you are so inclined) to support me so I can continue posting this fantasy genius - LOL! Peace out, ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Boston Celtics

2009-09-27T09:28:00.001-07:00

Wazzup fantasy b-ballers?!

I'm back with my 2nd team analysis installment, the much-hated Celtics (well, at least hated by us die-hard Laker fans - I seriously used to cry when I was little and Magic Johnson and the Lakers would lose to damn Larry Bird and the Celtics). I received positive feedback from the last post (on the Atlanta Hawks), so I will try to get through all the NBA teams and keep the blog going during the regular season. All I ask is that you please keep reading the goods and looking at/buying stuff from the ad sponsors - thanks so much!

Before I dive into the "green menace," I wanted to fill you in on some unknowns about these posts that you may be wondering about. All of the statistical player projections are from my own personal draft cheat sheet, developed by yours truly. I look at historical performance for each player (I usually look at ESPN's NBA website for career stats), take into account team personnel changes, player age, and individual end of the season/playoff performance to come up with these projections. However, I didn't come up with all of this on my own off the top of my head out of the blue, so I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge some other website influences that color my projections and my different takes on each player.

I've already said that I use Basketballmonster.com to create my own rank list (since you can put in your own customized projected stats), but I also regularly read the player news on Rotoworld.com (a fantastic resource to stay up-to-date), and have found GiveMeTheRock.com to be the best all-around resource for fantasy b-ball tips/ideas/links/resources on the web. As far as fantasy player analysis, I think RotoEvil has the best out there from anyone that I've seen (and as a bonus, he has GREAT taste in lovely women), but I haven't checked out the "Four Fingers of Fantasy Draft Guide" from the GMTR fellas yet, which I hear is great. Unfortunately, most of the above stuff costs $, so if you are a cheapskate (which I'm sure most of you are, especially in this depressing economy of ours) here are some tidbits. Join an online league and get "decent" info for free - the ESPN fantasy player analysis is actually pretty good, although oddly their player projections frequently don't match their analysis. If you join a Yahoo league, go to 'Draft Central' and Rotowire's complete draft kit (which they sell from their own website) is freely available for download under the 'Draft Kit' section. Now, personally, I'm not a huge fan of Rotowire (cuz I think a lot of their analysis is off), but they have a wealth of info, and are at least easily better than CBS - lol.

Ok, well, now that I feel like I threw some props out there and educated some of you about where to find more fantasy info, without further ado, on to those pesky green leprechauns!

BOSTON CELTICS

The Celtics are one of the beasts of the East and are a very real contender for the championship this season (after KG's injury basically ended their hopes of a repeat last year). They've restockpiled their hoops ammunition and are ready to make a last gasp run at another championship. They're basically the Spurs of the East, but older (haha!). Health has been, and will continue to be the big question mark for this team, but at least stupid Ainge didn't run Rondo out of town this summer.

Out with the old: Stephon Marbury "retired" from the NBA and will hopefully now go back to whatever alien homeworld he came from, Leon Powe (a bigger loss than it appears for the C's, considering he could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, playing for the Cavs), and irrelevant Gabe Pruitt

In with the new: Rasheed Wallace (great FA pick-up), Marquis Daniels (amazingly cheap FA pick-up), and Shelden Williams

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

Rajon Rondo:

This kid can flat out ball, as evidenced by his 16.9-9.7-9.8 with 2.5 stls/gm run in last year's playoffs. Now, he's not quite a superstar yet, but Rondo is the closest thing to Jason Kidd that his generation has to offer. I'm not quite sure why Ainge was offering Rondo and Ray to other teams this off-season, because Rondo is the present and the future for the Celtics. At 23 years old, he will continue to improve this year and doesn't have to worry about Starbury's antics behind him on the bench anymore. The sky is the limit for Rondo's IRL career, but his fantasy value ceiling is limited by his 3pt and FT shooting.

09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 0.3 3pters, 5.5 rebs, 8.5 asts, 2 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 50% FG, 65% FT, plays 78 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)

Eddie House: With the emergence of Rondo, there just aren't enough minutes for House to bomb away for enough fantasy value. He is instant offense off the bench and good for some 3's, but he doesn't bring enough to the table to bother drafting.

SG

Ray Allen:

Jesus Shuttlesworth made it back for another season with Boston, mainly because he is too old (34) for Ainge to get anything worthwhile for in a trade. However, he was a key cog to their championship squad 2 yrs ago and will continue to get plenty of play this season. Daniels may cut slightly into his minutes (and possibly Paul Pierce's), cuz he is a better defender than Ray-Ray, but Allen will still be an elite source of 3's and FT%, as long as you can supplement his minimal production elsewhere.

09-10 proj. = 17.4 pts, 2.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.9 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 46% FG, 92% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 40th-50th pick)

Marquis Daniels:

Marquis was a very important FA pick-up for the Celts, as he replaces what they lost from Posey (i.e. a solid defender), which was so crucial to their title run in 07-08. While Tony Allen is a respectable NBA player, he was never the same after tearing his ACL, and could never quite provide the oomph Boston needed from the backup SG/SF position. And, since Eddie House can't even spell defense, Marquis Daniels will play a crucial IRL role for the C's backing up both Ray and Pierce. How this translates into fantasy value is still an unknown, but I'm guessing Marquis may be worth a last round pick in most drafts. If we take a look at Posey's season with the Celtics in 07-08, we see that he managed to eek out 24.6 mins/gm and put up 7.4 pts, 4.3 rebs, 1.4 3's and 1 stl/gm - not bad. With Ray and Pierce getting older, Marquis may be able to settle into a 26+ minute niche. While Marquis doesn't get the 3's Posey does, that is enough court time for him to put up some useful stats (if he can stay healthy).

09-10 proj. = 10 pts, 0.3 3pters, 3.6 rebs, 2.1 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.5 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 65 gms (target with the 145th-165th pick)

SF

Paul Pierce:

The so-called "Truth" was the bane of my Laker's existence in the 2008 NBA Finals and has been so disillusioned in the past that he actually thought he was the best player in the game, ahead of my beloved (not in a gay way) Kobe and LBJ. As you can see from the above pic, he'll even go as far as attempting to gang-rape Kobe to win. But that warrior spirit (which I never could quite come to respect in a man who apparently doesn't know how to use a razor) is exactly what makes Pierce a fantasy force. True, he has slowed down a touch, but he is still a reliable source of across-the-board production and is fairly durable despite playing heavy minutes throughout his career. I don't like him at all, but I respect him and wouldn't hesitate to draft him.

09-10 proj. = 19.7 pts, 1.5 3pters, 5.3 rebs, 3.8 asts, 1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.8 TOs, 46% FG, 83% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-40th pick)

PF

Kevin Garnett:

KG finally ran out of gas a bit last year. For someone who is as manically intense, and plays as hard as he does, I'm amazed he was able to stay at that level for so long. KG has played a ridiculous 1,055 games in his 14 NBA seasons, which averages to an impressive 75+ gms/season. At 33, I think physics is finally catching up to him and his thin, but sturdy frame. Remarkably, even with the sub-par (for him) production, he has no fantasy weakness (other than the expected lack of 3's) and is as consistent as they come. The news is that he is ready to go for training camp and fired up to get a 2nd ring, so despite the fact that Doc Rivers will try to reign his intensity (and playing time) in a bit, I would be confident in drafting KG this year - however, this may be the last year that I will be able to say so.

09-10 proj. = 16 pts, 0 3pters, 8.7 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 53% FG, 83% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 15th-25th pick)

Glen Davis: Big Baby proved that he can be an effective NBA player last year after KG went down. He put up a respectable 12.6 pts and 5.6 rebs in 16 starts last year, and one would think with Powe gone, Davis would be worth a draft pick. The problem is that KG is back up and running, and a certain crazy PF/C named Rasheed Wallace is now in Beantown to stamp out Big Baby's budding fantasy star.

Kendrick Perkins:

The C's big bruiser really came into his own last year and was the blocking backbone (and enforcer at times) of Boston's defense. While his continued growth (he is only 24 after all) will be stunted somewhat by Sheed's arrival, I don't expect Perkins to take a step back, either. He should still manage 28 or so mins/gm and get 8+ pts & rebs/gm. Keep an eye on this guy though, because once KG and Sheed retire, he will be an easy double-double machine with 2+ blks/gm.

09-10 proj. = 8.3 pts, 0 3pters, 8.2 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.3 stls, 1.9 blks, 2 TOs, 58% FG, 61% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 120th-140th pick)

Rasheed Wallace:

Sheed was courted heavily by almost all the Eastern Conference playoff teams because he is one of the few centers in the league who can consistently disrupt Dwight Howard's game. Sheed annoys him enough on defense with his ball-strip attempts, and draws him away from the paint when he's on offense cuz Sheed can drain the 3. The "Technical Foul Machine" instantly makes the Celtics better against Orlando (and notably the Cavs as well, since he can draw Shaq and Big Z away from the paint too), and I'm beginning to like their chances more and more of making the NBA Finals this year. He's definitely past his prime, and will take a minutes hit since he'll be coming off the bench for the first time in his career, but Sheed has always played better when he's gunning for a championship on a good team - and the C's are definitely a championship-caliber team.

09-10 proj. = 11 pts, 1.5 3pters, 6.5 rebs, 1.5 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.3 blks, 0.9 TOs, 43% FG, 77% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-90th pick)

Woohoo - I don't have to think about these dang Celtics again until the NBA Finals (and hopefully not then, if the Magic or Cavs can knock them out again). They offer some really high-end fantasy value, but given their age, and Doc Rivers propensity to rest them at the end of the season, you have to be worried that, other than Rondo and Perkins, they will leave you high and dry during the fantasy playoffs, when you need them the most. If you're a fan (which means I automatically dislike you - sorry...), get ready for one hell of a Eastern conference playoffs and the very real possibility of reaching the promise land one last time before half the team heads off for a nursing home.

If you enjoyed this article, please leave some feedback, click on some ads (those links on the side), and look out for the next fantasy team breakdown in the near future - the Larry Brown-led, MJ-owned Charlotte Bobcats. Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Atlanta Hawks

2009-09-26T16:11:00.000-07:00

Hey fantasy b-ballers!!!

Having sampled a wide range of fantasy b-ball websites and blogs the past few years, I have found that, while they all contain a couple tidbits of useful information, on the whole, I always feel like something is missing. Some sites have good team analysis, while others have respectable (occasionally) player stat projections, but I've never found one place that puts it all together in a highly useful manner to help people draft and succeed at fantasy basketball. I do not label myself a "fantasy expert" (as I think a lot of those guys are clueless anyway, and give bad advice), but I have been a very successful fantasy b-ball manager the past couple years, having won both the regular season and playoff championships in both my ESPN and Yahoo leagues. While neither league is populated with industry "experts," they both have very savvy, competent managers and neither league has been a cakewalk to win, to say the least. So, this blog is for serious fantasy b-ball players who want the info they need to draft well and WIN this year.

So now that we have become acquainted, let's start with a team-by-team approach to the upcoming season. To stay organized, I will just go alphabetically, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. I kinda prefer the position-by-position way of discussing things, but will also briefly discuss the state of the franchise, and give individual player stat projections for the upcoming season, along with roughly what pick you should target players at (I hate when people say what round to draft players at, because that varies greatly depending on how many managers you have in your league).

Just FYI, I heavily use basketballmonster.com (an amazing website that allows you to enter your own player projections, and has tons of other useful tools), so most of my rankings come from them - the rankings are comparable to Yahoo's, but I've found ESPN's are a bit different. Just so you know, I think CBS Sports is basically useless for fantasy b-ball help (sorry CBS...), so I will probably never reference them again. So without further ado... (Btw, I am posting this info for all my buddies in my leagues to see, so hopefully this free-of-charge invaluable analysis doesn't come back to bite me in the a**). LOL! ;0)

ATLANTA HAWKS

The Hawks are a very respectable team in the East, but seem destined to always play second fiddle to the powerhouses in the East (the Magic, Cavs and Celtics). Atlanta was the 4th seed last year, and I expect more of the same this year, since they improved via trades and free agency, but not enough to catch up to the giants in the conference.

Out with the old: Flip Murray, who now finds himself in Charlotte (and a few irrelevant guys - i.e. Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and Solomon Jones)

In with the new: Jamal Crawford (traded from the unstable, crazy Nellie-led Warriors), Joe Smith (FA), and Jeff Teague (#19 pick in draft)

Basically, the Hawks got significant depth improvement with Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith, but now have a bit of a traffic jam at PG, since Teague could get some decent run on a lower-tier NBA team.

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Mike Bibby: Bibby should still start, but he is getting old (now 31) and you know that Crawford will take some of his minutes. I was surprised to learn that Bibby is somewhat of an Ironman - if you throw out his thumb problems in 07-08, he is basically a shoe-in for 80 gms/yr (i.e. 5/6 seasons he has had 79+ gms, including three 82 gm seasons). I expect his minutes to drop from ~34 to ~31 mins/gm, but he can still help you with 3's and decent assists.

09-10 proj. = 13.5 pts, 1.9 3pters, 3 rebs, 4.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.6 TOs, 43% FG, 79% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jamal Crawford: JC is more of a combo guard, but I will list him here since he will probably take more of Bibby's minutes then Joe Johnson's. Sadly, JC will go from being "the man" to just another foot soldier. He will still light it up on occasional nights, and will be a beast if anything happens to Bibby or JJ, but otherwise he will be taking a major minutes hit. You figure there are 96 mins/gm at PG & SG, so if Bibby takes ~31 and JJ takes ~38, that leaves ~27 mins for JC. However, the Hawks have a tendency to go small, meaning JJ or JC could play some at SF, so I'll be generous and say JC gets ~32 mins/gm. This is a big drop for someone used to playing 37+ mins/gm. He will be instant offense off the bench, but will also have nights where he defers to JJ or a hot JSmoov or Marvin. He can definitely help your FT% and 3's, but throw in the fact that he is somewhat fragile and you pretty much have to downgrade him significantly.

09-10 proj. = 15 pts, 1.7 3pters, 2.7 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.1 blks, 2 TOs, 41% FG, 86% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jeff Teague: There just aren't not enough minutes for Teague. If Bibby or JC get injured, he could get some run, but otherwise he is not draftable.

SG

Joe Johnson: Mr. Consistent has been the man in the ATL for the past 4 yrs and is a lock for over 21-4-5.5, which not too many SGs can match. For someone who has only been in the league for 8 yrs he has a LOT of miles on his legs though, as he has played 40 mins/gm for the past 6 yrs, and he plays almost every game, even when he's hurting (e.g. his foot the past couple yrs). That being said, and given the addition of JC, I think the Hawks will want to give JJ a bit of rest this year and I expect his minutes to drop down to ~38 mins/gm. However, I don't expect this to effect his value at all, since he will have a bit more energy towards the end of the season.

09-10 proj. = 21 pts, 1.9 3pters, 4.3 rebs, 5.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.4 TOs, 44% FG, 82.5% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-35th pick)

SF

Marvin Williams: The Hawks re-signed Marvin, which was a very intelligent thing, because he's young (23) and we still haven't seen his complete game blossom yet (e.g. he started bombing 3's out of nowhere last season). Now, I'm not saying it will happen this year, but I expect Marvin to improve significantly in the next few yrs. As for now though, he's still just a younger, better version of Tayshaun Prince. He wasn't healthy last year, but is feeling better now, so expect a bit of a slow start, but a strong finish to the season.

09-10 proj. = 14.5 pts, 0.9 3pters, 6.3 rebs, 1.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.4 TOs, 46% FG, 81% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 90th-110th pick)

Mo Evans: Flip Murray is gone, but JC is in the ATL now, so I expect the minutes effect to be a wash for poor Mo. He's shown flashes of mild fantasy promise in the past, but 22-23 mins/gm just doesn't get it done. Don't bother drafting him, but if Marvin goes down again, Mo could be a decent (but not great) FA pick-up.

PF

Josh Smith: JSmoov had a HORRIBLE season last yr (with putrid FT shooting) and I would be shocked if he didn't bounce back at least somewhat this year. While I don't really trust him to revert back to his old form (71% FT and nearly 3 blks/gm) I do think he will be somewhere between last year and his "prime" (quite an ironic thing to say about a 23 year old...). It seems like he had a crisis of confidence last season, but hopefully the coaching staff has him feeling good about himself again, and he can re-dedicate himself to defense.

09-10 proj. = 16.2 pts, 0.4 3pters, 8 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.4 stls, 2.3 blks, 2.6 TOs, 47% FG, 67% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)

Joe Smith: Joe is a great IRL addition to the Hawks, but the days of his being a fantasy contributor are likely behind him and gone forever. If JSmoov or Al get injured, take a look, but otherwise, he just won't get enough minutes to put up sufficient pts and rebs, especially with Zaza on the squad taking up big man minutes.

C

Al Horford: Big Al #2 (Al Jefferson being #1) has improved significantly during his 2 yrs in the NBA, and, while I wouldn't call it a "breakout" year, I think we can expect some continued improvement from him. I would not at all be surprised if he averaged a double-double this year and got closer to 2 than 1.5 blks/gm. All those positives being said, he will never be a big-time scorer with all the offensive firepower this team possesses. But he's still a very nice 2nd center (or even 1st, if you go small in the beginning of your draft) to have on your squad.

09-10 proj. = 11.7 pts, 0 3pters, 9.7 rebs, 2.5 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.6 blks, 1.6 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 50th-65th pick)

Zaza Pachulia: see Joe Smith (above). If Horford gets injured, he is an immediate must pick-up (as he is quite capable of getting a double-double when he approaches 25+ mins/gm). Otherwise, he's just an above-average sub with good potential, but not enough minutes.

Well, that's it for the Hawks. They offer some good fantasy value at every position, and are pretty reliable under Coach Woodson, so draft them with confidence. If you're a fan though, prepare for the #4 seed again and another 2nd round exit in the playoffs. :0/

If you enjoyed this article, please leave some feedback, buy some stuff (or at least look) from the sponsor ads (those links on the side), and look out for the next fantasy team breakdown in the near future - the much-despised Boston Celtics... I'm a die-hard Laker fan who just spent the last year of my life in Beantown - oh, the horror! Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King