I must apologize for my extended absence, but I've been working a lot lately, spending time w/ the familia and friends, and had to prepare for and draft in the 2 fantasy b-ball leagues I'm in this year. Since the season is fast approaching (and most of you have probably already drafted your teams), I figured I would switch tact from reviewing the individual NBA teams to covering the 2 drafts I was in, and give in-depth analysis on my team, my thoughts on all the picks in general, and my 2 cents on how you should mold a team given the top tier players you draft in the 1st few rds. Time permitting, I will return to the team previews, and at the minimum give a post listing the fantasy-relevant players from each team with my predicted stats for them.
But for now, on to my tale of 2 drafts! I will 1st review my ESPN draft that just went down this past Sunday. It was an awesome event because we got all 10 guys in the same house (40-year old virgin-style) to conduct an IRL draft on a big dry erase board w/ a simulated lottery (for the 1st 3 picks of the draft) and everything. We played basketball at a local park afterwards, and it was by far the best fantasy draft day I've ever been a part of. I'm the commissioner for that league, which is a $ league and chock full of guys who really enjoy basketball and who are fairly knowledgable about fantasy b-ball. This is the most competitive league I'm in and I would easily take at least 5 of the managers in this league over any 5 fantasy b-ball "experts" you could find out there.
Just to give you a bit of setting, we decided to start anew this year, so this was the 1st "permanent keeper" year. The only players we had left over from last year were 1 rookie/team. To protect the names of the innocent (lol), I will identify each manager by initials. The draft position after the lottery and keepers per manager were as follows:
JB - 1st, Anthony Randolph; HC - 2nd, Eric Gordon; DW - 3rd, Russell Westbrook; JP - 4th, Michael Beasley; SZ - 5th, Jason Thompson; SK - 6th, O.J. Mayo; GB - 7th, Chris Douglas-Roberts (GB, a die-hard Heat fan, had the opportunity to trade draft picks on the cheap for Mario Chalmers before the draft, but strangely decided to roll the dice w/ CDR... it may work out for him given CDR's 26-5-4-4-2 line he put up today); JM - 8th, Brook Lopez (who I attempted in vain to trade for); AM - 9th, Derrick Rose; Me - 10th, Kevin Love (gotta "love" the broken hand at the end of the monster preseason - very good thing for me that we have 1 IR slot in this league - whew!)
So, just to clarify, in our league, we have 2 'any' keepers that you can hold on to forever, and 1 new 'rookie' keeper each yr. So, for example, whoever takes CP3 can hold onto him for life, but whoever takes Blake Griffin will keep him for next yr, and then will probably drop him after that (cuz he would have 2 better other 'any' keepers to hold on to). We are a 9-category H2H league w/ 2 C spots and then the regular 6 G/F slots w/ 2 utility slots, 5 bench slots and 1 IR spot.
OK, for this installment I will review the 1st 5 rounds, and then have additional posts for the remaining rounds of the draft and my Yahoo draft. Now, onto the draft!
Round 1:
JB - 1. LeBron James; HC - 2. Chris Paul; DW - 3. Kevin Durant; JP - 4. Dwayne Wade; SZ - 5. Kobe Bryant; SK - 6. Dirk Nowitzki; GB - 7. Danny Granger; JM - 8. Amare Stoudemire; AM - 9. Deron Williams; Me - 10. DWIGHT HOWARD (wtf?!)
So, the LBJ vs. CP3 #1 pick argument has long been debated. I am firmly in the CP3 camp, because I just think the # of asts and stls he gets w/ the amazing %'s is just too much fantasy value to pass up on for anyone, but I definitely can't fault JB for taking LBJ #1 (who has less injury concerns, and is an all-around monster, esp. if he can bump that FT% closer to 80%).
HC has to feel like a winner for getting CP3 #2, I feel like Durant has to be picked #3 in a lifetime keeper league (for his insane upside), and JP gets great value w/ Wade @ #4 (assuming he can stay healthy again). Now is where things start to get a little weird. Kobe & Dirk are amazing fantasy players, but I expected them to fall a bit in a lifetime keeper league, since they are both 31. However, SZ and SK will be very solid this year, and I suppose they can get another 2-3 good years out of the old-timers.
So, this leaves GB (and myself) as the big winner coming out of round 1, since he gets a young stud, Danny Granger, amazingly at #7. The combo of pts, 3's, stls, blks and ft% just has to make you feel good inside, as long as his knees stay healthy.
Now, JM has a tough decision to make, because he did not expect Dwight to be available at #8, and he had created a draft plan for starting w/ Brook Lopez based off of drafting Amare Stoudemire, and keeping both his %'s strong. Now, personally, I still go Dwight here, and see if I can get Kevin Martin (which he ended up drafting anyways), to keep me competitive in FT%, but JM decided to take the risk on Amare's eye (and return to fantasy eliteness minus Shaq) and stick to his pre-draft blueprint. As long as Amare stays healthy, you can't really fault this pick, but Dwight just seems A LOT safer of a pick to me. So, now the Dwight dilemma shifts to AM, drafting #9, who has Derrick Rose, and also did not think Dwight would be available at this point in the draft. He was targeting Amare and Deron, and decided to own assists w/ Deron, also foregoing the superior H2H value of Dwight. This pick is a bit more suspect to me than JM's, because Deron is simply not rated as highly as Amare or Dwight, but again, I can't fault anyone for sticking to their guns and going with their pre-draft plan. And, in all fairness, nobody will be able to touch AM in assists this year.
So, at this point, the above picture shows what I feel like I'm doing to my beloved ESPN league w/ the #10 pick. I somehow get gift-wrapped the 23-year old most dominant center in the NBA who averages ~ 21-14 + 3 blks/gm. I am kinda shell-shocked because most everyone has Dwight as a top 5 to top 7 pick in H2H leagues, and this is only magnified by the fact that it's a lifetime keeper league. I understand that a lot of people don't want to have the FT% headache (and high TOs), but I happily take on this problem in exchange for an auto-win in rebs, blks and FG%. Unfortunately, I had done zero prep w/ how to draft w/ Dwight (since not in a million yrs did I think he would fall to me - I actually thought I would end up with Bosh and Dirk), so we'll see how the rest of the draft pans out for me...
Round 2:
Me - 11. CHRIS BOSH; AM - 12. Al Jefferson; JM- 13. Brandon Roy; GB - 14. Jose Calderon (huh?!...); SK - 15. Steve Nash; SZ - 16. Pau Gasol; JP - 17. Andre Iguodala; DW - 18. Chauncey Billups; HC - 19. Kevin Garnett; JB - 20. Joe Johnson
So, I went w/ Bosh at #11 for a number of reasons: a) IMHO he was the best player available; b) he is a C and starting off w/ PF Kevin Love (ESPN doesn't give him C-eligibility like Yahoo does), I wanted to make sure to get C's and PG's early; c) he is young - 25 yo; d) he is one of the few C's you can pair w/ Dwight and have a shot @ FT% (e.g. if you also get Kevin Martin later in the draft), esp. if Dwight shoots over 70% FTs this year like Van Gundy expects (btw, I am not holding my breath on that kind of improvement); e) he is in a contract year, so should put up some big #'s.
Me - 11. CHRIS BOSH; AM - 12. Al Jefferson; JM- 13. Brandon Roy; GB - 14. Jose Calderon (huh?!...); SK - 15. Steve Nash; SZ - 16. Pau Gasol; JP - 17. Andre Iguodala; DW - 18. Chauncey Billups; HC - 19. Kevin Garnett; JB - 20. Joe Johnson
So, I went w/ Bosh at #11 for a number of reasons: a) IMHO he was the best player available; b) he is a C and starting off w/ PF Kevin Love (ESPN doesn't give him C-eligibility like Yahoo does), I wanted to make sure to get C's and PG's early; c) he is young - 25 yo; d) he is one of the few C's you can pair w/ Dwight and have a shot @ FT% (e.g. if you also get Kevin Martin later in the draft), esp. if Dwight shoots over 70% FTs this year like Van Gundy expects (btw, I am not holding my breath on that kind of improvement); e) he is in a contract year, so should put up some big #'s.
The only other guy to consider here for me is Al Jeff (who I still may end up trading for if Dwight doesn't improve his FT% this yr), but his injury issues concerned me too much (and I already had a Timberwolf [Love] on my IR). As it is, Al Jeff was a perfect fit for AM at #12, since he needed a C badly, and the only other option would have been Pau. JM stuck to his gameplan, and got Brandon Roy, to keep his %'s up. I like Roy, and he is one of the few guys who could make a significant leap to superstar status this yr, if the Blazers can make some noise in the playoffs.
Then we come to this curious pick - Jose Calderon @ #14 (???). GB explained to me that he loves Calderon, and knew he wouldn't be available when he picked again, so took him now. This is a fair argument, and I am a complete believer in drafting guys you like and enjoy watching (e.g. NOT Boozer), but Calderon does not mesh AT ALL with Granger and CDR (assuming CDR starts and is fantasy relevant, which it's looking like he will be), and Calderon has had a horrible preseason. Granger provides lots of pts and 3's w/ good D stats, so it makes sense to me to surround him w/ high scorers or athletic guys (w/out regard to low FG% since Granger is a high volume-low FG% guy), not someone who only averages ~ 13 pts & 1.3 3pters/gm. I appreciate the need for a top tier PG, but I would definitely have gone w/ Nash or Billups here to complement Granger's strengths more.
I love Nash this year, but SK has to be worried about "Team Geriatric," as his 2 best keeper-level players are 31 & 35. Going forward, I would focus on a young guy with lots of potential to keep over Nash next year.
Above, Pau is wondering what he did to deserve falling all the way to #16. One could easily make a case for taking Pau in the 1st round, so SZ gets the steal of the 2nd round by scooping Pau up here. He is also making it extremely unpleasant for me to play against him this year, as he has the 2 best Lakers (including my non-gay boyfriend, Kobe) on his team.
The rest of Round 2 is fairly solid w/ JP getting Iguodala to complement Wade's (and Thompson's) athleticism, DW getting the last non-risky tier 1 PG in Billups to go w/ Durant and Westbrook, HC getting a nice value pick w/ Garnett at #19, and JB going w/ JJ to get big raw #'s to complement LBJ's all-around production.
Round 3:
JB - 21. Paul Pierce; HC - 22. Gerald Wallace; DW - 23. David West; JP - 24. Devin Harris; SZ - 25. Carmelo Anthony; SK - 26. Troy Murphy; GB - 27. Rajon Rondo (doh! @#$%!); JM - 28. Kevin Martin (doh! @#$%!); AM - 29. Jason Kidd; Me - 30. JOSH SMITH
JB - 21. Paul Pierce; HC - 22. Gerald Wallace; DW - 23. David West; JP - 24. Devin Harris; SZ - 25. Carmelo Anthony; SK - 26. Troy Murphy; GB - 27. Rajon Rondo (doh! @#$%!); JM - 28. Kevin Martin (doh! @#$%!); AM - 29. Jason Kidd; Me - 30. JOSH SMITH
With LBJ, JJ, and Randolph, I probably would have gone w/ a scoring PG (i.e. Devin Harris) here, but JB gets another good all-around producing SG/SF. You can't fault HC here for taking Gerald, as he does complement CP3, Eric Gordon & KG's defensive stats and %'s, but he also could have solidified winning assists against everyone by taking Kidd here. It's a good pick, but I would be cognizant of the fact that I don't want to waste CP3's asts and get some decent PGs later on in the draft. I'm generally not a big fan of David West, but he doesn't hurt you anywhere. Still, I think DW would have been better off w/ Kevin Martin here, since PFs are easy to come by later, and big time, 3pt shooting scorers (to complement Durant) are not. JP gets another high producer on his squad w/ Harris @ #24 and is starting to look like a pretty high-octane team. You can't argue with Melo @ #25 either, as SZ's team now has a ton of points and good %'s w/ Kobe, Pau, Melo and Thompson. SK finally gets someone under 30 (Troy Murphy, who is 29...), and is pretty darn committed early to winning 3's. Troy seems like a bit of a reach here though (esp. considering it will be extremely difficult for him to duplicate his #'s from last season), and I may have gone w/ David Lee instead to meet my C need. But Troy is def. a solid #1 C option (esp. for SK's apparent small ball strategy).
So, I'm feeling pretty good here after pick #26, because my top 3 targets for my next pick (KMart, Rondo & Kidd, in that order) are still available, and Caron Butler & David Lee have not been drafted yet, so I'm thinking at least 1, and possibly even 2, of these guys will fall to me. So inevitably, the next 3 picks are...
Ouch! There goes the best PG in the NBA for my specific team build. I don't care about 3's, TO's & FT% (given that KMart gets drafted next), and Rondo is an absolute BEAST at everything else (i.e. a triple-double machine this year). The more frustrating thing was that again, this pick makes no sense to pair w/ Granger. I know GB loves Rondo IRL as a fan (similar to Calderon), but w/ Rondo & Calderon, he has effectively self-neutralized his initial strength in points and 3's that he had from Granger. Now, I'm not saying Rondo should have fallen to me (since I'm pretty sure AM would have taken him 2 picks later), but I just fail to see where GB is going w/ his team. Oh well, we'll see if it works out or not. :0/
I love Kevin Martin as a fantasy player, and kept him as a keeper this past off-season in my Yahoo league. He has by far the most positive FT% contribution of any player in the NBA (in case you're wondering, Dirk, Billups, Granger & Durant round out the top 5). He also pours in the points and 3's, but doesn't do much of anything else, and is an injury risk. With Martin, I could compete for FT%, but with him gone, I decided to completely throw the category. This is an interesting pick for JM because he was already strong in FT%, and could have gone w/ Kidd to make use of Roy's asts, but apparently he knew he would pick up poor FT-shooting C's later on and wanted to keep his points strong, so this pick made sense, and he eventually realized he needed to throw asts anyways.
Next up was the guy with the most pure fantasy value left on the board, Jason Kidd, and he just so happened to fit in perfectly w/ AM's intended assists dominance.
So, with Kidd gone as well (yup - that was an 0/3 for me in 3 consecutive picks, folks), I was not feeling that great about my non-core stats and needed to make a decision about what direction to head in. I decided I would have to throw 3's and go for pts, asts, and stls in addition to maintaining my superstrong rebs, blks and fg%. I never really pay attention to TO's, since I have a tendency to stream players a lot throughout the season (and generally draft high TO players, since I want my fantasy players to have the ball in their hands as much as possible), so I did not take this into consideration much. So, when you remove 3's, TO's & FT% from the equation, Josh Smith was far and away the most valuable player remaining, and really makes me unbeatable in blocks.
Round 4:
Me - 31. MONTA ELLIS; AM - 32. Caron Butler; JM- 33. Tim Duncan; GB - 34. David Lee; SK - 35. Gilbert Arenas; SZ - 36. Tony Parker; JP - 37. Nene; DW - 38. Vince Carter; HC - 39. Andris Biedrins; JB - 40. Jameer Nelson
So, the PGs were starting to run very dry, and Monta fits really well into my team plan (as well as providing the always valuable PG/SG eligibility combo), so this pick (@ #31) was a necessary one.
So, the PGs were starting to run very dry, and Monta fits really well into my team plan (as well as providing the always valuable PG/SG eligibility combo), so this pick (@ #31) was a necessary one.
AM again went for the best remaining value with Butler @ #32 (I had him ranked #22 on my pre-draft cheat sheet), and JM caught me off guard with Duncan over David Lee. I guess he made a firm decision to go after blocks, since he had Lopez & Amare, but Duncan is highly unreliable (Pop is gonna rest him as much as humanly possible, and Timmie is gonna have a decent amount of random DNPs) and doesn't play many minutes at the most important time of the fantasy season - the playoffs. This pick will help JM during the season, but I think he's gonna regret it come playoff time. GB gets great value on David Lee @ #34, and it seems like his plan is to overcome Granger's bad FG% at the expense of his point, 3pt and block value. I actually like SK's pick a lot, because Arenas is 27 and has the potential to return to a top 20 fantasy player (so SK could keep Arenas instead of Nash next year). It also bolsters his asts, pts and 3's even more.
And then...
SZ got caught with his pants down! #36 is WAAAAAAY too early for Tony Parker in fantasy b-ball (I had him ranked at #64...). SZ explained that he got anxious about not having a PG yet, but I would much rather take Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson or Baron Davis than Parker. SZ had a solid draft going before this pick, but as we shall see, he recovers some of the significant value lost on this pick later on the draft.
JP picked up Nene because he needed a C, and you can't argue too much with the pick, although a like Biedrins a bit better (but I guess JP liked the higher FT% over the increased rebounds). DW got a great value pick w/ Vince Carter @ #38 (esp. if you take into consideration that Pierce, who is very similar to VC was taken @ #21). HC got his 1st C, and the best one still on the board, w/ Biedrins, and then JB also met a positional need w/ Jameer, who is a very solid fantasy PG.
Round 5:
JB - 41. Elton Brand; HC - 42. LaMarcus Aldridge; DW - 43. Andrea Bargnani; JP - 44. Andrew Bogut (huh?!...); SZ - 45. Jason Richardson; SK - 46. Rashard Lewis (steal!); GB - 47. Mehmet Okur; JM - 48. Al Harrington; AM - 49. Ben Gordon; Me - 50. ANDREW BYNUM
Elton Brand is a high-risk, high-reward player this season, but since he only has PF-eligibility for ESPN, JB probably would have been better off taking a C here (like Bargnani, Bynum or Horford), since he had none on his roster to this point. Apparently HC thought Aldridge had C eligibility, and made a pretty significant positional mistake by taking him over Bargnani. LaMarcus is a great fantasy player, but the top level C's run out quickly at this point in the draft, and I feel like frequently you must forego the best player to meet your positional needs. DW didn't make the same mistake, and quickly scooped up Bargnani, who I love on his team. Then another C was drafted, but not one you would expect...
Elton Brand is a high-risk, high-reward player this season, but since he only has PF-eligibility for ESPN, JB probably would have been better off taking a C here (like Bargnani, Bynum or Horford), since he had none on his roster to this point. Apparently HC thought Aldridge had C eligibility, and made a pretty significant positional mistake by taking him over Bargnani. LaMarcus is a great fantasy player, but the top level C's run out quickly at this point in the draft, and I feel like frequently you must forego the best player to meet your positional needs. DW didn't make the same mistake, and quickly scooped up Bargnani, who I love on his team. Then another C was drafted, but not one you would expect...
Bogut?! Wtf?! This pick was actually VERY fortunate for me, because JP asked me during the draft who was better between Bynum and Bogut. Obviously, Bynum is better, but I answered semi-truthfully that it was likely too early for either one of them at this pick in the draft (since most people aren't nearly as high on Bynum as I am this year), and they both had injury risk - Bynum's knees and Bogut's back. I personally had Bynum @ #40 & Bogut @ #107, so it was a coup for me for Bynum to slip past JP. JP probably should have gone w/ Horford to try and keep his FT% semi-respectable (even though Harris was his only good FT% shooter up to this point), but he was OK w/ getting Bogut, so, for JP's sake, I hope Bogut stays healthy all season. And if Bynum gets injured (e.g. he already has a shoulder strain), then a healthy Bogut is better than an injured Bynum.
SZ follows up w/ Richardson, who is a solid SG (esp. now that the Suns are back to run-n-gun), but maybe a tad early given that Ray Allen was still available.
Then SK gets one of the biggest steals of the draft to this point w/ Rashard @ #46. Sure, he's suspended for the 1st 10 gms this season (tsk, tsk - gotta lay off those 'roids), but he is easily a top 30 player and we have an IR spot in our league! In hindsight, I was actually kind of bummed that SK got Shard, because he could have single-handedly kept me competitive in 3's this year (and he really makes SK insane at 3's).
Two 3-pt shooting bigs went next, and, while I like Okur a lot, since Al Harrington no longer has C-eligbility in ESPN, I would have preferred Charlie Villanueva to Harrington. But as it turns out, JM got CV on the comeback anyways, so it worked out well for him. AM got a solid scoring SG in Gordon, but I'm quite shocked he didn't take Ray Allen (or Manu - where's the love?) instead, since he loves the guy. Funny enough, he too got the other player (Ray) on the comeback, so no loss here.
Finally, I was as happy as Drew was at this Playboy party when Bynum made it to me at pick #50 (OK, well, maybe not THAT happy). He fits in PERFECTLY w/ my Dwight Howard-led team, and I would bet $ that, if he stays fairly healthy (i.e. plays 68+ gms) he will make the All-Star team this year. It is not much of a reach to suggest 18+ points, 9+ rebs & 2+ blocks w/ solid %'s for him this year, which would make him one of the elite C's (and overall players) in fantasy b-ball this season. If he does do that, I would even consider trading Bosh for value this season (to make a strong run at the championship), and keeping Bynum (who is 22) w/ Dwight as my keepers for future years. Maybe...
OK, that's all for now. Stay tuned for the last 9 rounds and then my Yahoo draft after that. I've had a lot of hits so far on this blog, and I'm very happy that it has drawn significant interest. Please tell any of your friends who play fantasy b-ball to check out the site, and, as always, ad clicks are much appreciated. GL HF w/ your teams this season and please leave comments if you have any topics you would like me to cover (in addition to team previews) in the future.
Peace out ballers!
- by Kobe is King
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