2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Charlotte Bobcats

Yo yo fantasy b-ballers!


Next up on the docket is the up-and-coming (?) Charlotte Bobcats. Before we get into them, I just want to give you some fantasy resource news updates. Basketballmonster.com (who were gracious enough to hook me up with a subscription renewal) is up and running for the new season, complete with their player stat projections for the upcoming year - the cost is $24.95, but if you are a competitive fantasy b-baller (especially if you are in a $ league, like I am) it is money well spent. Also, Rotoworld is really in full swing now with all the training camp/preseason news, so I'd pay attention to the reports on injuries and position battles. NBA TV (on the actual television and online) is starting to show some training camps (Denver Nuggets right now), so you can see position battles and how the players look first hand. The first preseason game is this Thursday, Oct. 1 (Nuggets-Jazz) and I'm excited to finally see some live game action!


So, in jest, one of my buddies requested I skip all these "crappy" teams and go straight to the Miami Heat (his favorite team). While I was trying to have some order to this blog (i.e. cover the teams alphabetically), I actually like the idea of posting based off of reader's interest, so next post will be the Heat, then obviously I have to knock out the Lakers (MY team!), and then it will be up to you what teams you want me to analyze. So please leave a comment over the next 3 posts (this one, Miami, LA) with your vote for what team you want me to cover next.


Again, if you enjoy/learn something from these posts, please support me by checking out some of the ads/links on the side - thanks! OK, well, that's all I can think of for now, so let's get into MJ's squad.



CHARLOTTE BOBCATS


Larry Brown has really went to work re-tooling this team to his rigid pre-set specifications, and they actually had a decent late-season run last year, but fell short of the playoffs. They randomly traded a reliable, albeit undersized, double-double machine (Emeka Okafor), for an oft-injured offensively-challenged career underachiever (Tyson Chandler). Larry Brown prefers tall, lanky centers, but he may regret the move when his new big man sits out a dozen games this year. Besides that, the Cats are pretty similar to last year's team, but with a touch more depth. They have an outside chance at the playoffs this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Out with the old: Emeka Okafor (huh?....), Sean May (a LOT of dead weight), and Juwan Howard

In with the new: Tyson Chandler (can you say short-term $ saver?), Flip Murray, and Gerald Henderson (#12 pick in the draft)

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Raymond Felton:


For some inexplicable reason, Felton decided to just sign the Bobcats' qualifying offer, instead of agreeing to a 4-5 yr deal, which Charlotte was strangely willing to offer. I think he will seriously regret that decision, once D.J. proves to be a capable starting PG this year and MJ & company decide not to re-sign Felton next year. But, for this season, I expect Felton to put up fairly similar stats to last yr, though he may lose a couple minutes to D.J. and Flip.

09-10 proj. = 14 pts, 0.7 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 6.7 asts, 1.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 41% FG, 80% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 75th-100th pick, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league, and if you get punished more by the high TOs)

D.J. Augustin:

This kid is exciting and fun to watch play - now we just need Larry Brown to give him enough minutes to really show what he can do. We all know Larry hates rookies, so now that D.J.'s a 2nd-yr player, hopefully he gets more run. I'm pretty sure even MJ has the management common sense to firmly install D.J. as the PG of the future for the Bobcats, but this is a guy who drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, so anything's possible. Draft D.J. for his 3pt and FT contribution, and hope that Felton or Raja get moved to open up more minutes for the young PG.

09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 1.8 3pters, 2.1 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0 blks, 1.9 TOs, 43.5% FG, 88.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 115th-135th pick)

SG

Raja Bell:

Reports are out that the Bobcats are looking to move Raja and his $5.25 million expiring contract. Considering they just signed Flip and want to give D.J. more minutes, it makes a lot of sense to trade him for some more depth at the PF spot. So, if he gets moved before your fantasy draft, upgrade D.J. and Flip significantly; if he doesn't, he'll play less minutes than last year (likely ~31-32) and basically only be good for some 3's. Either way, there is not too much to be excited about for this defensive-oriented 33-year old.

09-10 proj. = 12 pts, 1.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.2 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.2 TOs, 44% FG, 86.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 145th-160th pick)

Flip Murray: As the team is currently configured, Flip doesn't look like he'll be able to carve out any more than the 24.7 mins/gm he got with the Hawks last year (if he even gets that many minutes). He puts up inferior numbers to Raja across the board, so unless Raja gets traded, Flip just isn't quite productive enough to warrant a draft pick.


SF

Gerald Wallace:

Aptly named (as can be seen by the above picture), Crash is annually one of the highest risk-highest reward guys in the NBA. Despite suffering broken ribs and a pneumothorax (collapsed lung) last year, this super-human stud was able to play 71 very valuable games - I know because he helped carry both of my fantasy squads to the league title. There are not too many guys in the league who are more valuable at getting steals and blocks, and with Emeka gone, you have to think Gerald is gonna help pick up some of the offensive slack in the post (since Tyson's offensive skills are seriously limited). I may just have a sentimental attachment to the guy, but I have a feeling Crash will have a very big season if he can stay fairly healthy and keep his FT% up.

09-10 proj. = 17 pts, 0.5 3pters, 7.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.9 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.2 TOs, 48% FG, 77% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 15th-30th pick)

PF

Boris Diaw:

The Frenchman had a fantasy revival last season after being traded to Charlotte, and posted his best stats since the 05-06 season (with Phoenix). Larry Brown trusts Diaw to be a facilitator or a scorer as needed, and, without a quality backup PF behind him (Larry Brown has already talked about Gerald possibly getting some minutes at PF), Diaw is gonna get plenty of minutes again this season (~37/gm). He puts up very good 3's and assists for a PF and for some reason is regularly undervalued in most fantasy drafts - don't make the same mistake.

09-10 proj. = 15.3 pts, 1.1 3pters, 6 rebs, 5 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.8 TOs, 50% FG, 69% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-100th pick, again, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league +/- TOs)

C

Tyson Chandler:

CP3 wasn't happy to lose Tyson (one of his best friends), but I don't expect Charlotte will be too happy with what Chandler brings to the table (or the lack thereof), when compared to Okafor. In New Orleans, Tyson benefited profoundly from CP3's pinpoint lob passes, was the only blocker on the Hornets (and still only managed a measly 1.2 blks/gm) and really only had to compete with David West for rebounds. Now he has Felton passing to him, and Wallace and Diaw rebounding the ball and preventing slashers from driving the lane. When you throw in his recent injury issues, it becomes clear that there are a LOT of other fantasy centers that you should target before looking Tyson's way on draft day.

09-10 proj. = 8.8 pts, 0 3pters, 9.3 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.4 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 56.5% FG, 59% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 130th-150th pick)

DeSagana Diop & Nazr Mohammed: One of these guys is gonna get decent minutes WHEN Tyson gets injured, but it's just a matter of who is Larry Brown's favorite at the moment. However, neither of them is going to put up very compelling production, and neither will do much of anything when Chandler is playing. As such, I cannot recommend drafting either one of these guys, but one of them may be worth a temporary pick-up sometime during the season.

So, that does it for the Bobcats. They improved their SG depth, but took a step back at the C position and don't have much quality depth at the forward spots. I can't really see them doing any better than the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, so if I were MJ and Larry Brown, I would hand the PG keys over to D.J. sooner than later. Unfortunately, if you're a fan, they seem kind of stuck in a rut of mediocrity (without a clear path out), so expect several more years of barely missing the playoffs to come.

As stated above, I'm gonna mix things up a bit and go out of alphabetical for the next post, the Miami Heat. I will follow that up with the Los Angeles Lakers (woot!) and then after that, it's up to your preference. Please leave a comment with what team you would like to see after the Lakers, and I will just go with the most requested. As always, thanks for the interest (and comments), and please click on some ads (and purchase stuff if you are so inclined) to support me so I can continue posting this fantasy genius - LOL! Peace out, ballers!


- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Boston Celtics

Wazzup fantasy b-ballers?!


I'm back with my 2nd team analysis installment, the much-hated Celtics (well, at least hated by us die-hard Laker fans - I seriously used to cry when I was little and Magic Johnson and the Lakers would lose to damn Larry Bird and the Celtics). I received positive feedback from the last post (on the Atlanta Hawks), so I will try to get through all the NBA teams and keep the blog going during the regular season. All I ask is that you please keep reading the goods and looking at/buying stuff from the ad sponsors - thanks so much!


Before I dive into the "green menace," I wanted to fill you in on some unknowns about these posts that you may be wondering about. All of the statistical player projections are from my own personal draft cheat sheet, developed by yours truly. I look at historical performance for each player (I usually look at ESPN's NBA website for career stats), take into account team personnel changes, player age, and individual end of the season/playoff performance to come up with these projections. However, I didn't come up with all of this on my own off the top of my head out of the blue, so I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge some other website influences that color my projections and my different takes on each player.


I've already said that I use Basketballmonster.com to create my own rank list (since you can put in your own customized projected stats), but I also regularly read the player news on Rotoworld.com (a fantastic resource to stay up-to-date), and have found GiveMeTheRock.com to be the best all-around resource for fantasy b-ball tips/ideas/links/resources on the web. As far as fantasy player analysis, I think RotoEvil has the best out there from anyone that I've seen (and as a bonus, he has GREAT taste in lovely women), but I haven't checked out the "Four Fingers of Fantasy Draft Guide" from the GMTR fellas yet, which I hear is great. Unfortunately, most of the above stuff costs $, so if you are a cheapskate (which I'm sure most of you are, especially in this depressing economy of ours) here are some tidbits. Join an online league and get "decent" info for free - the ESPN fantasy player analysis is actually pretty good, although oddly their player projections frequently don't match their analysis. If you join a Yahoo league, go to 'Draft Central' and Rotowire's complete draft kit (which they sell from their own website) is freely available for download under the 'Draft Kit' section. Now, personally, I'm not a huge fan of Rotowire (cuz I think a lot of their analysis is off), but they have a wealth of info, and are at least easily better than CBS - lol.

Ok, well, now that I feel like I threw some props out there and educated some of you about where to find more fantasy info, without further ado, on to those pesky green leprechauns!



BOSTON CELTICS



The Celtics are one of the beasts of the East and are a very real contender for the championship this season (after KG's injury basically ended their hopes of a repeat last year). They've restockpiled their hoops ammunition and are ready to make a last gasp run at another championship. They're basically the Spurs of the East, but older (haha!). Health has been, and will continue to be the big question mark for this team, but at least stupid Ainge didn't run Rondo out of town this summer.

Out with the old: Stephon Marbury "retired" from the NBA and will hopefully now go back to whatever alien homeworld he came from, Leon Powe (a bigger loss than it appears for the C's, considering he could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, playing for the Cavs), and irrelevant Gabe Pruitt

In with the new: Rasheed Wallace (great FA pick-up), Marquis Daniels (amazingly cheap FA pick-up), and Shelden Williams

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Rajon Rondo:

This kid can flat out ball, as evidenced by his 16.9-9.7-9.8 with 2.5 stls/gm run in last year's playoffs. Now, he's not quite a superstar yet, but Rondo is the closest thing to Jason Kidd that his generation has to offer. I'm not quite sure why Ainge was offering Rondo and Ray to other teams this off-season, because Rondo is the present and the future for the Celtics. At 23 years old, he will continue to improve this year and doesn't have to worry about Starbury's antics behind him on the bench anymore. The sky is the limit for Rondo's IRL career, but his fantasy value ceiling is limited by his 3pt and FT shooting.



09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 0.3 3pters, 5.5 rebs, 8.5 asts, 2 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 50% FG, 65% FT, plays 78 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)



Eddie House: With the emergence of Rondo, there just aren't enough minutes for House to bomb away for enough fantasy value. He is instant offense off the bench and good for some 3's, but he doesn't bring enough to the table to bother drafting.

SG

Ray Allen:

Jesus Shuttlesworth made it back for another season with Boston, mainly because he is too old (34) for Ainge to get anything worthwhile for in a trade. However, he was a key cog to their championship squad 2 yrs ago and will continue to get plenty of play this season. Daniels may cut slightly into his minutes (and possibly Paul Pierce's), cuz he is a better defender than Ray-Ray, but Allen will still be an elite source of 3's and FT%, as long as you can supplement his minimal production elsewhere.

09-10 proj. = 17.4 pts, 2.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.9 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 46% FG, 92% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 40th-50th pick)

Marquis Daniels:

Marquis was a very important FA pick-up for the Celts, as he replaces what they lost from Posey (i.e. a solid defender), which was so crucial to their title run in 07-08. While Tony Allen is a respectable NBA player, he was never the same after tearing his ACL, and could never quite provide the oomph Boston needed from the backup SG/SF position. And, since Eddie House can't even spell defense, Marquis Daniels will play a crucial IRL role for the C's backing up both Ray and Pierce. How this translates into fantasy value is still an unknown, but I'm guessing Marquis may be worth a last round pick in most drafts. If we take a look at Posey's season with the Celtics in 07-08, we see that he managed to eek out 24.6 mins/gm and put up 7.4 pts, 4.3 rebs, 1.4 3's and 1 stl/gm - not bad. With Ray and Pierce getting older, Marquis may be able to settle into a 26+ minute niche. While Marquis doesn't get the 3's Posey does, that is enough court time for him to put up some useful stats (if he can stay healthy).

09-10 proj. = 10 pts, 0.3 3pters, 3.6 rebs, 2.1 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.5 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 65 gms (target with the 145th-165th pick)

SF

Paul Pierce:

The so-called "Truth" was the bane of my Laker's existence in the 2008 NBA Finals and has been so disillusioned in the past that he actually thought he was the best player in the game, ahead of my beloved (not in a gay way) Kobe and LBJ. As you can see from the above pic, he'll even go as far as attempting to gang-rape Kobe to win. But that warrior spirit (which I never could quite come to respect in a man who apparently doesn't know how to use a razor) is exactly what makes Pierce a fantasy force. True, he has slowed down a touch, but he is still a reliable source of across-the-board production and is fairly durable despite playing heavy minutes throughout his career. I don't like him at all, but I respect him and wouldn't hesitate to draft him.

09-10 proj. = 19.7 pts, 1.5 3pters, 5.3 rebs, 3.8 asts, 1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.8 TOs, 46% FG, 83% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-40th pick)

PF

Kevin Garnett:

KG finally ran out of gas a bit last year. For someone who is as manically intense, and plays as hard as he does, I'm amazed he was able to stay at that level for so long. KG has played a ridiculous 1,055 games in his 14 NBA seasons, which averages to an impressive 75+ gms/season. At 33, I think physics is finally catching up to him and his thin, but sturdy frame. Remarkably, even with the sub-par (for him) production, he has no fantasy weakness (other than the expected lack of 3's) and is as consistent as they come. The news is that he is ready to go for training camp and fired up to get a 2nd ring, so despite the fact that Doc Rivers will try to reign his intensity (and playing time) in a bit, I would be confident in drafting KG this year - however, this may be the last year that I will be able to say so.

09-10 proj. = 16 pts, 0 3pters, 8.7 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 53% FG, 83% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 15th-25th pick)

Glen Davis: Big Baby proved that he can be an effective NBA player last year after KG went down. He put up a respectable 12.6 pts and 5.6 rebs in 16 starts last year, and one would think with Powe gone, Davis would be worth a draft pick. The problem is that KG is back up and running, and a certain crazy PF/C named Rasheed Wallace is now in Beantown to stamp out Big Baby's budding fantasy star.

C

Kendrick Perkins:

The C's big bruiser really came into his own last year and was the blocking backbone (and enforcer at times) of Boston's defense. While his continued growth (he is only 24 after all) will be stunted somewhat by Sheed's arrival, I don't expect Perkins to take a step back, either. He should still manage 28 or so mins/gm and get 8+ pts & rebs/gm. Keep an eye on this guy though, because once KG and Sheed retire, he will be an easy double-double machine with 2+ blks/gm.

09-10 proj. = 8.3 pts, 0 3pters, 8.2 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.3 stls, 1.9 blks, 2 TOs, 58% FG, 61% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 120th-140th pick)

Rasheed Wallace:

Sheed was courted heavily by almost all the Eastern Conference playoff teams because he is one of the few centers in the league who can consistently disrupt Dwight Howard's game. Sheed annoys him enough on defense with his ball-strip attempts, and draws him away from the paint when he's on offense cuz Sheed can drain the 3. The "Technical Foul Machine" instantly makes the Celtics better against Orlando (and notably the Cavs as well, since he can draw Shaq and Big Z away from the paint too), and I'm beginning to like their chances more and more of making the NBA Finals this year. He's definitely past his prime, and will take a minutes hit since he'll be coming off the bench for the first time in his career, but Sheed has always played better when he's gunning for a championship on a good team - and the C's are definitely a championship-caliber team.

09-10 proj. = 11 pts, 1.5 3pters, 6.5 rebs, 1.5 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.3 blks, 0.9 TOs, 43% FG, 77% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-90th pick)

Woohoo - I don't have to think about these dang Celtics again until the NBA Finals (and hopefully not then, if the Magic or Cavs can knock them out again). They offer some really high-end fantasy value, but given their age, and Doc Rivers propensity to rest them at the end of the season, you have to be worried that, other than Rondo and Perkins, they will leave you high and dry during the fantasy playoffs, when you need them the most. If you're a fan (which means I automatically dislike you - sorry...), get ready for one hell of a Eastern conference playoffs and the very real possibility of reaching the promise land one last time before half the team heads off for a nursing home.

If you enjoyed this article, please leave some feedback, click on some ads (those links on the side), and look out for the next fantasy team breakdown in the near future - the Larry Brown-led, MJ-owned Charlotte Bobcats. Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King

2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Atlanta Hawks

Hey fantasy b-ballers!!!

Having sampled a wide range of fantasy b-ball websites and blogs the past few years, I have found that, while they all contain a couple tidbits of useful information, on the whole, I always feel like something is missing. Some sites have good team analysis, while others have respectable (occasionally) player stat projections, but I've never found one place that puts it all together in a highly useful manner to help people draft and succeed at fantasy basketball. I do not label myself a "fantasy expert" (as I think a lot of those guys are clueless anyway, and give bad advice), but I have been a very successful fantasy b-ball manager the past couple years, having won both the regular season and playoff championships in both my ESPN and Yahoo leagues. While neither league is populated with industry "experts," they both have very savvy, competent managers and neither league has been a cakewalk to win, to say the least. So, this blog is for serious fantasy b-ball players who want the info they need to draft well and WIN this year.

So now that we have become acquainted, let's start with a team-by-team approach to the upcoming season. To stay organized, I will just go alphabetically, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. I kinda prefer the position-by-position way of discussing things, but will also briefly discuss the state of the franchise, and give individual player stat projections for the upcoming season, along with roughly what pick you should target players at (I hate when people say what round to draft players at, because that varies greatly depending on how many managers you have in your league).

Just FYI, I heavily use basketballmonster.com (an amazing website that allows you to enter your own player projections, and has tons of other useful tools), so most of my rankings come from them - the rankings are comparable to Yahoo's, but I've found ESPN's are a bit different. Just so you know, I think CBS Sports is basically useless for fantasy b-ball help (sorry CBS...), so I will probably never reference them again. So without further ado... (Btw, I am posting this info for all my buddies in my leagues to see, so hopefully this free-of-charge invaluable analysis doesn't come back to bite me in the a**). LOL! ;0)


ATLANTA HAWKS

The Hawks are a very respectable team in the East, but seem destined to always play second fiddle to the powerhouses in the East (the Magic, Cavs and Celtics). Atlanta was the 4th seed last year, and I expect more of the same this year, since they improved via trades and free agency, but not enough to catch up to the giants in the conference.

Out with the old: Flip Murray, who now finds himself in Charlotte (and a few irrelevant guys - i.e. Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and Solomon Jones)

In with the new: Jamal Crawford (traded from the unstable, crazy Nellie-led Warriors), Joe Smith (FA), and Jeff Teague (#19 pick in draft)

Basically, the Hawks got significant depth improvement with Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith, but now have a bit of a traffic jam at PG, since Teague could get some decent run on a lower-tier NBA team.

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Mike Bibby: Bibby should still start, but he is getting old (now 31) and you know that Crawford will take some of his minutes. I was surprised to learn that Bibby is somewhat of an Ironman - if you throw out his thumb problems in 07-08, he is basically a shoe-in for 80 gms/yr (i.e. 5/6 seasons he has had 79+ gms, including three 82 gm seasons). I expect his minutes to drop from ~34 to ~31 mins/gm, but he can still help you with 3's and decent assists.

09-10 proj. = 13.5 pts, 1.9 3pters, 3 rebs, 4.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.6 TOs, 43% FG, 79% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jamal Crawford: JC is more of a combo guard, but I will list him here since he will probably take more of Bibby's minutes then Joe Johnson's. Sadly, JC will go from being "the man" to just another foot soldier. He will still light it up on occasional nights, and will be a beast if anything happens to Bibby or JJ, but otherwise he will be taking a major minutes hit. You figure there are 96 mins/gm at PG & SG, so if Bibby takes ~31 and JJ takes ~38, that leaves ~27 mins for JC. However, the Hawks have a tendency to go small, meaning JJ or JC could play some at SF, so I'll be generous and say JC gets ~32 mins/gm. This is a big drop for someone used to playing 37+ mins/gm. He will be instant offense off the bench, but will also have nights where he defers to JJ or a hot JSmoov or Marvin. He can definitely help your FT% and 3's, but throw in the fact that he is somewhat fragile and you pretty much have to downgrade him significantly.

09-10 proj. = 15 pts, 1.7 3pters, 2.7 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.1 blks, 2 TOs, 41% FG, 86% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jeff Teague: There just aren't not enough minutes for Teague. If Bibby or JC get injured, he could get some run, but otherwise he is not draftable.


SG

Joe Johnson: Mr. Consistent has been the man in the ATL for the past 4 yrs and is a lock for over 21-4-5.5, which not too many SGs can match. For someone who has only been in the league for 8 yrs he has a LOT of miles on his legs though, as he has played 40 mins/gm for the past 6 yrs, and he plays almost every game, even when he's hurting (e.g. his foot the past couple yrs). That being said, and given the addition of JC, I think the Hawks will want to give JJ a bit of rest this year and I expect his minutes to drop down to ~38 mins/gm. However, I don't expect this to effect his value at all, since he will have a bit more energy towards the end of the season.

09-10 proj. = 21 pts, 1.9 3pters, 4.3 rebs, 5.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.4 TOs, 44% FG, 82.5% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-35th pick)


SF

Marvin Williams: The Hawks re-signed Marvin, which was a very intelligent thing, because he's young (23) and we still haven't seen his complete game blossom yet (e.g. he started bombing 3's out of nowhere last season). Now, I'm not saying it will happen this year, but I expect Marvin to improve significantly in the next few yrs. As for now though, he's still just a younger, better version of Tayshaun Prince. He wasn't healthy last year, but is feeling better now, so expect a bit of a slow start, but a strong finish to the season.

09-10 proj. = 14.5 pts, 0.9 3pters, 6.3 rebs, 1.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.4 TOs, 46% FG, 81% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 90th-110th pick)

Mo Evans: Flip Murray is gone, but JC is in the ATL now, so I expect the minutes effect to be a wash for poor Mo. He's shown flashes of mild fantasy promise in the past, but 22-23 mins/gm just doesn't get it done. Don't bother drafting him, but if Marvin goes down again, Mo could be a decent (but not great) FA pick-up.


PF

Josh Smith: JSmoov had a HORRIBLE season last yr (with putrid FT shooting) and I would be shocked if he didn't bounce back at least somewhat this year. While I don't really trust him to revert back to his old form (71% FT and nearly 3 blks/gm) I do think he will be somewhere between last year and his "prime" (quite an ironic thing to say about a 23 year old...). It seems like he had a crisis of confidence last season, but hopefully the coaching staff has him feeling good about himself again, and he can re-dedicate himself to defense.

09-10 proj. = 16.2 pts, 0.4 3pters, 8 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.4 stls, 2.3 blks, 2.6 TOs, 47% FG, 67% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)

Joe Smith: Joe is a great IRL addition to the Hawks, but the days of his being a fantasy contributor are likely behind him and gone forever. If JSmoov or Al get injured, take a look, but otherwise, he just won't get enough minutes to put up sufficient pts and rebs, especially with Zaza on the squad taking up big man minutes.


C

Al Horford: Big Al #2 (Al Jefferson being #1) has improved significantly during his 2 yrs in the NBA, and, while I wouldn't call it a "breakout" year, I think we can expect some continued improvement from him. I would not at all be surprised if he averaged a double-double this year and got closer to 2 than 1.5 blks/gm. All those positives being said, he will never be a big-time scorer with all the offensive firepower this team possesses. But he's still a very nice 2nd center (or even 1st, if you go small in the beginning of your draft) to have on your squad.

09-10 proj. = 11.7 pts, 0 3pters, 9.7 rebs, 2.5 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.6 blks, 1.6 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 50th-65th pick)

Zaza Pachulia: see Joe Smith (above). If Horford gets injured, he is an immediate must pick-up (as he is quite capable of getting a double-double when he approaches 25+ mins/gm). Otherwise, he's just an above-average sub with good potential, but not enough minutes.


Well, that's it for the Hawks. They offer some good fantasy value at every position, and are pretty reliable under Coach Woodson, so draft them with confidence. If you're a fan though, prepare for the #4 seed again and another 2nd round exit in the playoffs. :0/

If you enjoyed this article, please leave some feedback, buy some stuff (or at least look) from the sponsor ads (those links on the side), and look out for the next fantasy team breakdown in the near future - the much-despised Boston Celtics... I'm a die-hard Laker fan who just spent the last year of my life in Beantown - oh, the horror! Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King