2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Atlanta Hawks

Hey fantasy b-ballers!!!

Having sampled a wide range of fantasy b-ball websites and blogs the past few years, I have found that, while they all contain a couple tidbits of useful information, on the whole, I always feel like something is missing. Some sites have good team analysis, while others have respectable (occasionally) player stat projections, but I've never found one place that puts it all together in a highly useful manner to help people draft and succeed at fantasy basketball. I do not label myself a "fantasy expert" (as I think a lot of those guys are clueless anyway, and give bad advice), but I have been a very successful fantasy b-ball manager the past couple years, having won both the regular season and playoff championships in both my ESPN and Yahoo leagues. While neither league is populated with industry "experts," they both have very savvy, competent managers and neither league has been a cakewalk to win, to say the least. So, this blog is for serious fantasy b-ball players who want the info they need to draft well and WIN this year.

So now that we have become acquainted, let's start with a team-by-team approach to the upcoming season. To stay organized, I will just go alphabetically, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. I kinda prefer the position-by-position way of discussing things, but will also briefly discuss the state of the franchise, and give individual player stat projections for the upcoming season, along with roughly what pick you should target players at (I hate when people say what round to draft players at, because that varies greatly depending on how many managers you have in your league).

Just FYI, I heavily use basketballmonster.com (an amazing website that allows you to enter your own player projections, and has tons of other useful tools), so most of my rankings come from them - the rankings are comparable to Yahoo's, but I've found ESPN's are a bit different. Just so you know, I think CBS Sports is basically useless for fantasy b-ball help (sorry CBS...), so I will probably never reference them again. So without further ado... (Btw, I am posting this info for all my buddies in my leagues to see, so hopefully this free-of-charge invaluable analysis doesn't come back to bite me in the a**). LOL! ;0)


ATLANTA HAWKS

The Hawks are a very respectable team in the East, but seem destined to always play second fiddle to the powerhouses in the East (the Magic, Cavs and Celtics). Atlanta was the 4th seed last year, and I expect more of the same this year, since they improved via trades and free agency, but not enough to catch up to the giants in the conference.

Out with the old: Flip Murray, who now finds himself in Charlotte (and a few irrelevant guys - i.e. Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and Solomon Jones)

In with the new: Jamal Crawford (traded from the unstable, crazy Nellie-led Warriors), Joe Smith (FA), and Jeff Teague (#19 pick in draft)

Basically, the Hawks got significant depth improvement with Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith, but now have a bit of a traffic jam at PG, since Teague could get some decent run on a lower-tier NBA team.

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Mike Bibby: Bibby should still start, but he is getting old (now 31) and you know that Crawford will take some of his minutes. I was surprised to learn that Bibby is somewhat of an Ironman - if you throw out his thumb problems in 07-08, he is basically a shoe-in for 80 gms/yr (i.e. 5/6 seasons he has had 79+ gms, including three 82 gm seasons). I expect his minutes to drop from ~34 to ~31 mins/gm, but he can still help you with 3's and decent assists.

09-10 proj. = 13.5 pts, 1.9 3pters, 3 rebs, 4.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.6 TOs, 43% FG, 79% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jamal Crawford: JC is more of a combo guard, but I will list him here since he will probably take more of Bibby's minutes then Joe Johnson's. Sadly, JC will go from being "the man" to just another foot soldier. He will still light it up on occasional nights, and will be a beast if anything happens to Bibby or JJ, but otherwise he will be taking a major minutes hit. You figure there are 96 mins/gm at PG & SG, so if Bibby takes ~31 and JJ takes ~38, that leaves ~27 mins for JC. However, the Hawks have a tendency to go small, meaning JJ or JC could play some at SF, so I'll be generous and say JC gets ~32 mins/gm. This is a big drop for someone used to playing 37+ mins/gm. He will be instant offense off the bench, but will also have nights where he defers to JJ or a hot JSmoov or Marvin. He can definitely help your FT% and 3's, but throw in the fact that he is somewhat fragile and you pretty much have to downgrade him significantly.

09-10 proj. = 15 pts, 1.7 3pters, 2.7 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.1 blks, 2 TOs, 41% FG, 86% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-85th pick)

Jeff Teague: There just aren't not enough minutes for Teague. If Bibby or JC get injured, he could get some run, but otherwise he is not draftable.


SG

Joe Johnson: Mr. Consistent has been the man in the ATL for the past 4 yrs and is a lock for over 21-4-5.5, which not too many SGs can match. For someone who has only been in the league for 8 yrs he has a LOT of miles on his legs though, as he has played 40 mins/gm for the past 6 yrs, and he plays almost every game, even when he's hurting (e.g. his foot the past couple yrs). That being said, and given the addition of JC, I think the Hawks will want to give JJ a bit of rest this year and I expect his minutes to drop down to ~38 mins/gm. However, I don't expect this to effect his value at all, since he will have a bit more energy towards the end of the season.

09-10 proj. = 21 pts, 1.9 3pters, 4.3 rebs, 5.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.4 TOs, 44% FG, 82.5% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-35th pick)


SF

Marvin Williams: The Hawks re-signed Marvin, which was a very intelligent thing, because he's young (23) and we still haven't seen his complete game blossom yet (e.g. he started bombing 3's out of nowhere last season). Now, I'm not saying it will happen this year, but I expect Marvin to improve significantly in the next few yrs. As for now though, he's still just a younger, better version of Tayshaun Prince. He wasn't healthy last year, but is feeling better now, so expect a bit of a slow start, but a strong finish to the season.

09-10 proj. = 14.5 pts, 0.9 3pters, 6.3 rebs, 1.7 asts, 1 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.4 TOs, 46% FG, 81% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 90th-110th pick)

Mo Evans: Flip Murray is gone, but JC is in the ATL now, so I expect the minutes effect to be a wash for poor Mo. He's shown flashes of mild fantasy promise in the past, but 22-23 mins/gm just doesn't get it done. Don't bother drafting him, but if Marvin goes down again, Mo could be a decent (but not great) FA pick-up.


PF

Josh Smith: JSmoov had a HORRIBLE season last yr (with putrid FT shooting) and I would be shocked if he didn't bounce back at least somewhat this year. While I don't really trust him to revert back to his old form (71% FT and nearly 3 blks/gm) I do think he will be somewhere between last year and his "prime" (quite an ironic thing to say about a 23 year old...). It seems like he had a crisis of confidence last season, but hopefully the coaching staff has him feeling good about himself again, and he can re-dedicate himself to defense.

09-10 proj. = 16.2 pts, 0.4 3pters, 8 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.4 stls, 2.3 blks, 2.6 TOs, 47% FG, 67% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)

Joe Smith: Joe is a great IRL addition to the Hawks, but the days of his being a fantasy contributor are likely behind him and gone forever. If JSmoov or Al get injured, take a look, but otherwise, he just won't get enough minutes to put up sufficient pts and rebs, especially with Zaza on the squad taking up big man minutes.


C

Al Horford: Big Al #2 (Al Jefferson being #1) has improved significantly during his 2 yrs in the NBA, and, while I wouldn't call it a "breakout" year, I think we can expect some continued improvement from him. I would not at all be surprised if he averaged a double-double this year and got closer to 2 than 1.5 blks/gm. All those positives being said, he will never be a big-time scorer with all the offensive firepower this team possesses. But he's still a very nice 2nd center (or even 1st, if you go small in the beginning of your draft) to have on your squad.

09-10 proj. = 11.7 pts, 0 3pters, 9.7 rebs, 2.5 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.6 blks, 1.6 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 50th-65th pick)

Zaza Pachulia: see Joe Smith (above). If Horford gets injured, he is an immediate must pick-up (as he is quite capable of getting a double-double when he approaches 25+ mins/gm). Otherwise, he's just an above-average sub with good potential, but not enough minutes.


Well, that's it for the Hawks. They offer some good fantasy value at every position, and are pretty reliable under Coach Woodson, so draft them with confidence. If you're a fan though, prepare for the #4 seed again and another 2nd round exit in the playoffs. :0/

If you enjoyed this article, please leave some feedback, buy some stuff (or at least look) from the sponsor ads (those links on the side), and look out for the next fantasy team breakdown in the near future - the much-despised Boston Celtics... I'm a die-hard Laker fan who just spent the last year of my life in Beantown - oh, the horror! Peace out ballers!

- by Kobe is King