I'm back with my 2nd team analysis installment, the much-hated Celtics (well, at least hated by us die-hard Laker fans - I seriously used to cry when I was little and Magic Johnson and the Lakers would lose to damn Larry Bird and the Celtics). I received positive feedback from the last post (on the Atlanta Hawks), so I will try to get through all the NBA teams and keep the blog going during the regular season. All I ask is that you please keep reading the goods and looking at/buying stuff from the ad sponsors - thanks so much!
Before I dive into the "green menace," I wanted to fill you in on some unknowns about these posts that you may be wondering about. All of the statistical player projections are from my own personal draft cheat sheet, developed by yours truly. I look at historical performance for each player (I usually look at ESPN's NBA website for career stats), take into account team personnel changes, player age, and individual end of the season/playoff performance to come up with these projections. However, I didn't come up with all of this on my own off the top of my head out of the blue, so I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge some other website influences that color my projections and my different takes on each player.
I've already said that I use Basketballmonster.com to create my own rank list (since you can put in your own customized projected stats), but I also regularly read the player news on Rotoworld.com (a fantastic resource to stay up-to-date), and have found GiveMeTheRock.com to be the best all-around resource for fantasy b-ball tips/ideas/links/resources on the web. As far as fantasy player analysis, I think RotoEvil has the best out there from anyone that I've seen (and as a bonus, he has GREAT taste in lovely women), but I haven't checked out the "Four Fingers of Fantasy Draft Guide" from the GMTR fellas yet, which I hear is great. Unfortunately, most of the above stuff costs $, so if you are a cheapskate (which I'm sure most of you are, especially in this depressing economy of ours) here are some tidbits. Join an online league and get "decent" info for free - the ESPN fantasy player analysis is actually pretty good, although oddly their player projections frequently don't match their analysis. If you join a Yahoo league, go to 'Draft Central' and Rotowire's complete draft kit (which they sell from their own website) is freely available for download under the 'Draft Kit' section. Now, personally, I'm not a huge fan of Rotowire (cuz I think a lot of their analysis is off), but they have a wealth of info, and are at least easily better than CBS - lol.
Ok, well, now that I feel like I threw some props out there and educated some of you about where to find more fantasy info, without further ado, on to those pesky green leprechauns!
BOSTON CELTICS
The Celtics are one of the beasts of the East and are a very real contender for the championship this season (after KG's injury basically ended their hopes of a repeat last year). They've restockpiled their hoops ammunition and are ready to make a last gasp run at another championship. They're basically the Spurs of the East, but older (haha!). Health has been, and will continue to be the big question mark for this team, but at least stupid Ainge didn't run Rondo out of town this summer.
Out with the old: Stephon Marbury "retired" from the NBA and will hopefully now go back to whatever alien homeworld he came from, Leon Powe (a bigger loss than it appears for the C's, considering he could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, playing for the Cavs), and irrelevant Gabe Pruitt
In with the new: Rasheed Wallace (great FA pick-up), Marquis Daniels (amazingly cheap FA pick-up), and Shelden Williams
So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:
PG
Rajon Rondo:
This kid can flat out ball, as evidenced by his 16.9-9.7-9.8 with 2.5 stls/gm run in last year's playoffs. Now, he's not quite a superstar yet, but Rondo is the closest thing to Jason Kidd that his generation has to offer. I'm not quite sure why Ainge was offering Rondo and Ray to other teams this off-season, because Rondo is the present and the future for the Celtics. At 23 years old, he will continue to improve this year and doesn't have to worry about Starbury's antics behind him on the bench anymore. The sky is the limit for Rondo's IRL career, but his fantasy value ceiling is limited by his 3pt and FT shooting.
09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 0.3 3pters, 5.5 rebs, 8.5 asts, 2 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 50% FG, 65% FT, plays 78 gms (target with the 30th-40th pick)
Eddie House: With the emergence of Rondo, there just aren't enough minutes for House to bomb away for enough fantasy value. He is instant offense off the bench and good for some 3's, but he doesn't bring enough to the table to bother drafting.
SG
Ray Allen:
Jesus Shuttlesworth made it back for another season with Boston, mainly because he is too old (34) for Ainge to get anything worthwhile for in a trade. However, he was a key cog to their championship squad 2 yrs ago and will continue to get plenty of play this season. Daniels may cut slightly into his minutes (and possibly Paul Pierce's), cuz he is a better defender than Ray-Ray, but Allen will still be an elite source of 3's and FT%, as long as you can supplement his minimal production elsewhere.
09-10 proj. = 17.4 pts, 2.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.9 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 46% FG, 92% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 40th-50th pick)
Marquis Daniels:
Marquis was a very important FA pick-up for the Celts, as he replaces what they lost from Posey (i.e. a solid defender), which was so crucial to their title run in 07-08. While Tony Allen is a respectable NBA player, he was never the same after tearing his ACL, and could never quite provide the oomph Boston needed from the backup SG/SF position. And, since Eddie House can't even spell defense, Marquis Daniels will play a crucial IRL role for the C's backing up both Ray and Pierce. How this translates into fantasy value is still an unknown, but I'm guessing Marquis may be worth a last round pick in most drafts. If we take a look at Posey's season with the Celtics in 07-08, we see that he managed to eek out 24.6 mins/gm and put up 7.4 pts, 4.3 rebs, 1.4 3's and 1 stl/gm - not bad. With Ray and Pierce getting older, Marquis may be able to settle into a 26+ minute niche. While Marquis doesn't get the 3's Posey does, that is enough court time for him to put up some useful stats (if he can stay healthy).
09-10 proj. = 10 pts, 0.3 3pters, 3.6 rebs, 2.1 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.5 TOs, 52% FG, 73% FT, plays 65 gms (target with the 145th-165th pick)
SF
Paul Pierce:
The so-called "Truth" was the bane of my Laker's existence in the 2008 NBA Finals and has been so disillusioned in the past that he actually thought he was the best player in the game, ahead of my beloved (not in a gay way) Kobe and LBJ. As you can see from the above pic, he'll even go as far as attempting to gang-rape Kobe to win. But that warrior spirit (which I never could quite come to respect in a man who apparently doesn't know how to use a razor) is exactly what makes Pierce a fantasy force. True, he has slowed down a touch, but he is still a reliable source of across-the-board production and is fairly durable despite playing heavy minutes throughout his career. I don't like him at all, but I respect him and wouldn't hesitate to draft him.
09-10 proj. = 19.7 pts, 1.5 3pters, 5.3 rebs, 3.8 asts, 1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.8 TOs, 46% FG, 83% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 25th-40th pick)
PF
Kevin Garnett:
Kevin Garnett:
KG finally ran out of gas a bit last year. For someone who is as manically intense, and plays as hard as he does, I'm amazed he was able to stay at that level for so long. KG has played a ridiculous 1,055 games in his 14 NBA seasons, which averages to an impressive 75+ gms/season. At 33, I think physics is finally catching up to him and his thin, but sturdy frame. Remarkably, even with the sub-par (for him) production, he has no fantasy weakness (other than the expected lack of 3's) and is as consistent as they come. The news is that he is ready to go for training camp and fired up to get a 2nd ring, so despite the fact that Doc Rivers will try to reign his intensity (and playing time) in a bit, I would be confident in drafting KG this year - however, this may be the last year that I will be able to say so.
09-10 proj. = 16 pts, 0 3pters, 8.7 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 53% FG, 83% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 15th-25th pick)
Glen Davis: Big Baby proved that he can be an effective NBA player last year after KG went down. He put up a respectable 12.6 pts and 5.6 rebs in 16 starts last year, and one would think with Powe gone, Davis would be worth a draft pick. The problem is that KG is back up and running, and a certain crazy PF/C named Rasheed Wallace is now in Beantown to stamp out Big Baby's budding fantasy star.
C
Kendrick Perkins:
The C's big bruiser really came into his own last year and was the blocking backbone (and enforcer at times) of Boston's defense. While his continued growth (he is only 24 after all) will be stunted somewhat by Sheed's arrival, I don't expect Perkins to take a step back, either. He should still manage 28 or so mins/gm and get 8+ pts & rebs/gm. Keep an eye on this guy though, because once KG and Sheed retire, he will be an easy double-double machine with 2+ blks/gm.
09-10 proj. = 8.3 pts, 0 3pters, 8.2 rebs, 1.3 asts, 0.3 stls, 1.9 blks, 2 TOs, 58% FG, 61% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 120th-140th pick)
Rasheed Wallace:
Sheed was courted heavily by almost all the Eastern Conference playoff teams because he is one of the few centers in the league who can consistently disrupt Dwight Howard's game. Sheed annoys him enough on defense with his ball-strip attempts, and draws him away from the paint when he's on offense cuz Sheed can drain the 3. The "Technical Foul Machine" instantly makes the Celtics better against Orlando (and notably the Cavs as well, since he can draw Shaq and Big Z away from the paint too), and I'm beginning to like their chances more and more of making the NBA Finals this year. He's definitely past his prime, and will take a minutes hit since he'll be coming off the bench for the first time in his career, but Sheed has always played better when he's gunning for a championship on a good team - and the C's are definitely a championship-caliber team.
09-10 proj. = 11 pts, 1.5 3pters, 6.5 rebs, 1.5 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.3 blks, 0.9 TOs, 43% FG, 77% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 70th-90th pick)
Woohoo - I don't have to think about these dang Celtics again until the NBA Finals (and hopefully not then, if the Magic or Cavs can knock them out again). They offer some really high-end fantasy value, but given their age, and Doc Rivers propensity to rest them at the end of the season, you have to be worried that, other than Rondo and Perkins, they will leave you high and dry during the fantasy playoffs, when you need them the most. If you're a fan (which means I automatically dislike you - sorry...), get ready for one hell of a Eastern conference playoffs and the very real possibility of reaching the promise land one last time before half the team heads off for a nursing home.
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