2009-2010 Team by Team Fantasy Basketball Analysis: Charlotte Bobcats

Yo yo fantasy b-ballers!


Next up on the docket is the up-and-coming (?) Charlotte Bobcats. Before we get into them, I just want to give you some fantasy resource news updates. Basketballmonster.com (who were gracious enough to hook me up with a subscription renewal) is up and running for the new season, complete with their player stat projections for the upcoming year - the cost is $24.95, but if you are a competitive fantasy b-baller (especially if you are in a $ league, like I am) it is money well spent. Also, Rotoworld is really in full swing now with all the training camp/preseason news, so I'd pay attention to the reports on injuries and position battles. NBA TV (on the actual television and online) is starting to show some training camps (Denver Nuggets right now), so you can see position battles and how the players look first hand. The first preseason game is this Thursday, Oct. 1 (Nuggets-Jazz) and I'm excited to finally see some live game action!


So, in jest, one of my buddies requested I skip all these "crappy" teams and go straight to the Miami Heat (his favorite team). While I was trying to have some order to this blog (i.e. cover the teams alphabetically), I actually like the idea of posting based off of reader's interest, so next post will be the Heat, then obviously I have to knock out the Lakers (MY team!), and then it will be up to you what teams you want me to analyze. So please leave a comment over the next 3 posts (this one, Miami, LA) with your vote for what team you want me to cover next.


Again, if you enjoy/learn something from these posts, please support me by checking out some of the ads/links on the side - thanks! OK, well, that's all I can think of for now, so let's get into MJ's squad.



CHARLOTTE BOBCATS


Larry Brown has really went to work re-tooling this team to his rigid pre-set specifications, and they actually had a decent late-season run last year, but fell short of the playoffs. They randomly traded a reliable, albeit undersized, double-double machine (Emeka Okafor), for an oft-injured offensively-challenged career underachiever (Tyson Chandler). Larry Brown prefers tall, lanky centers, but he may regret the move when his new big man sits out a dozen games this year. Besides that, the Cats are pretty similar to last year's team, but with a touch more depth. They have an outside chance at the playoffs this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Out with the old: Emeka Okafor (huh?....), Sean May (a LOT of dead weight), and Juwan Howard

In with the new: Tyson Chandler (can you say short-term $ saver?), Flip Murray, and Gerald Henderson (#12 pick in the draft)

So now let's look at the position breakdown and the relevant players for an average-sized (~10-12 managers, ~150-180 players) fantasy league:

PG

Raymond Felton:


For some inexplicable reason, Felton decided to just sign the Bobcats' qualifying offer, instead of agreeing to a 4-5 yr deal, which Charlotte was strangely willing to offer. I think he will seriously regret that decision, once D.J. proves to be a capable starting PG this year and MJ & company decide not to re-sign Felton next year. But, for this season, I expect Felton to put up fairly similar stats to last yr, though he may lose a couple minutes to D.J. and Flip.

09-10 proj. = 14 pts, 0.7 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 6.7 asts, 1.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.7 TOs, 41% FG, 80% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 75th-100th pick, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league, and if you get punished more by the high TOs)

D.J. Augustin:

This kid is exciting and fun to watch play - now we just need Larry Brown to give him enough minutes to really show what he can do. We all know Larry hates rookies, so now that D.J.'s a 2nd-yr player, hopefully he gets more run. I'm pretty sure even MJ has the management common sense to firmly install D.J. as the PG of the future for the Bobcats, but this is a guy who drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, so anything's possible. Draft D.J. for his 3pt and FT contribution, and hope that Felton or Raja get moved to open up more minutes for the young PG.

09-10 proj. = 13.3 pts, 1.8 3pters, 2.1 rebs, 4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0 blks, 1.9 TOs, 43.5% FG, 88.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 115th-135th pick)

SG

Raja Bell:

Reports are out that the Bobcats are looking to move Raja and his $5.25 million expiring contract. Considering they just signed Flip and want to give D.J. more minutes, it makes a lot of sense to trade him for some more depth at the PF spot. So, if he gets moved before your fantasy draft, upgrade D.J. and Flip significantly; if he doesn't, he'll play less minutes than last year (likely ~31-32) and basically only be good for some 3's. Either way, there is not too much to be excited about for this defensive-oriented 33-year old.

09-10 proj. = 12 pts, 1.5 3pters, 3.5 rebs, 2.2 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.2 TOs, 44% FG, 86.5% FT, plays 75 gms (target with the 145th-160th pick)

Flip Murray: As the team is currently configured, Flip doesn't look like he'll be able to carve out any more than the 24.7 mins/gm he got with the Hawks last year (if he even gets that many minutes). He puts up inferior numbers to Raja across the board, so unless Raja gets traded, Flip just isn't quite productive enough to warrant a draft pick.


SF

Gerald Wallace:

Aptly named (as can be seen by the above picture), Crash is annually one of the highest risk-highest reward guys in the NBA. Despite suffering broken ribs and a pneumothorax (collapsed lung) last year, this super-human stud was able to play 71 very valuable games - I know because he helped carry both of my fantasy squads to the league title. There are not too many guys in the league who are more valuable at getting steals and blocks, and with Emeka gone, you have to think Gerald is gonna help pick up some of the offensive slack in the post (since Tyson's offensive skills are seriously limited). I may just have a sentimental attachment to the guy, but I have a feeling Crash will have a very big season if he can stay fairly healthy and keep his FT% up.

09-10 proj. = 17 pts, 0.5 3pters, 7.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.9 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.2 TOs, 48% FG, 77% FT, plays 70 gms (target with the 15th-30th pick)

PF

Boris Diaw:

The Frenchman had a fantasy revival last season after being traded to Charlotte, and posted his best stats since the 05-06 season (with Phoenix). Larry Brown trusts Diaw to be a facilitator or a scorer as needed, and, without a quality backup PF behind him (Larry Brown has already talked about Gerald possibly getting some minutes at PF), Diaw is gonna get plenty of minutes again this season (~37/gm). He puts up very good 3's and assists for a PF and for some reason is regularly undervalued in most fantasy drafts - don't make the same mistake.

09-10 proj. = 15.3 pts, 1.1 3pters, 6 rebs, 5 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.8 TOs, 50% FG, 69% FT, plays 80 gms (target with the 70th-100th pick, again, depending on if you're playing in a H2H vs. Rotisserie league +/- TOs)

C

Tyson Chandler:

CP3 wasn't happy to lose Tyson (one of his best friends), but I don't expect Charlotte will be too happy with what Chandler brings to the table (or the lack thereof), when compared to Okafor. In New Orleans, Tyson benefited profoundly from CP3's pinpoint lob passes, was the only blocker on the Hornets (and still only managed a measly 1.2 blks/gm) and really only had to compete with David West for rebounds. Now he has Felton passing to him, and Wallace and Diaw rebounding the ball and preventing slashers from driving the lane. When you throw in his recent injury issues, it becomes clear that there are a LOT of other fantasy centers that you should target before looking Tyson's way on draft day.

09-10 proj. = 8.8 pts, 0 3pters, 9.3 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.4 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.7 TOs, 56.5% FG, 59% FT, plays 72 gms (target with the 130th-150th pick)

DeSagana Diop & Nazr Mohammed: One of these guys is gonna get decent minutes WHEN Tyson gets injured, but it's just a matter of who is Larry Brown's favorite at the moment. However, neither of them is going to put up very compelling production, and neither will do much of anything when Chandler is playing. As such, I cannot recommend drafting either one of these guys, but one of them may be worth a temporary pick-up sometime during the season.

So, that does it for the Bobcats. They improved their SG depth, but took a step back at the C position and don't have much quality depth at the forward spots. I can't really see them doing any better than the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, so if I were MJ and Larry Brown, I would hand the PG keys over to D.J. sooner than later. Unfortunately, if you're a fan, they seem kind of stuck in a rut of mediocrity (without a clear path out), so expect several more years of barely missing the playoffs to come.

As stated above, I'm gonna mix things up a bit and go out of alphabetical for the next post, the Miami Heat. I will follow that up with the Los Angeles Lakers (woot!) and then after that, it's up to your preference. Please leave a comment with what team you would like to see after the Lakers, and I will just go with the most requested. As always, thanks for the interest (and comments), and please click on some ads (and purchase stuff if you are so inclined) to support me so I can continue posting this fantasy genius - LOL! Peace out, ballers!


- by Kobe is King