A Tale of Two Drafts (part 2)

Four more days until the NBA season starts, fantasy b-ballers!

I can't wait for the Lakers to get their rings and drub the "new-look" Clippers again like they've been doing since the Clips were in San Diego. But until then let's continue w/ my ESPN league draft analysis. I'll hit you up with 4 more commentary-filled rounds today (Rounds 6-9, where, combined with the final rounds, fantasy leagues are frequently won or lost) and then wrap up the ESPN draft in the 3rd post, followed by my Yahoo draft analysis (which will be much more focused on my team, since you will know my thoughts on almost all the players).

Last we left off, I picked up a crucial cog (if he can stay healthy) to my squad in Andrew Bynum, but I'm already crossing my fingers that his strained shoulder isn't a big issue [btw, I'm PISSED that he will be missing the final preseason game in San Diego that I'm going to tonight]. I can't have 2 guys (Love being the other) tease me w/ monster preseasons only to have both need to start from square one in the regular season, can I?!... can I? :0/ Gotta shake this bad karma - on to Round 6!



Roster refresher:

JB: A. Randolph, LBJ, JJ, Pierce, Jameer, Brand
HC: E. Gordon, CP3, KG, Gerald Wallace, Biedrins, Aldridge
DW: R. Westbrook, Durant, Billups, David West, Vinsanity, Bargnani
JP: M. Beasley, D. Wade, Iguodala, Devin Harris, Nene, Bogut
SZ: J. Thompson, Kobe, Pau, Carmelo, Tony Parker, J. Richardson
SK: O.J. Mayo, Dirk, Nash, Troy Murphy, Arenas, Rashard
GB: CDR, Granger, Calderon, Rondo, David Lee, Okur
JM: B. Lopez, Amare, B. Roy, Kevin Martin, Duncan, Al Harrington
AM: D. Rose, Deron, Al Jeff, Kidd, Caron Butler, Ben Gordon
Me: K. Love, Dwight, Bosh, JSmoov, Monta, Bynum


Round 6:

Me - 51. SHAWN MARION; AM - 52. Ray Allen; JM- 53. Charlie Villanueva; GB - 54. Al Horford; SK - 55. Michael Redd; SZ - 56. Hedo Turkoglu; JP - 57. Thaddeus Young; DW - 58. Antawn Jamison; HC - 59. Manu Ginobili; JB - 60. Marcus Camby




So I REALLY tried to convince myself to take CV here since I am uber-high on him and had him rated the highest on my cheat sheet, but when you have zero 3-pt shooters in your first 6 picks it just ain't gonna happen. When you remove 3's from the equation it's painfully obvious that Marion is way better than CV. Plus, if the couple games he played for Dallas in the preseason is any indication, it looks like Kidd may be able to resurrect the Matrix we all used to know and love, which would make grabbing him at #51 quite a steal. Now that I look back on the draft, I wonder if I should have just reached for Mo Williams here, to give me another PG and start trying to work on 3's, but no, I don't think that would have been better than the superior value Marion provides...

Ray Allen is a staple of any AM team, since he loves the Celtics so much (J/K - he's a big Lakers fan like me). But seriously, Ray Ray still offers plenty of fantasy value even at the ripe ole age of 34.

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE CV this year, and was so impressed w/ him last year, that I traded significant value to get him, and almost allowed Scott Skiles to ruin my championship season. Skiles is an idiot, control-freak, defense addict who has an allergy to playing his best players (e.g. he's already decided to start Kurt Thomas over a clearly superior Hakim Warrick - Kurt Thomas? Are you freakin' serious, Skiles?!). CV was clearly the Bucks best player last year (after Redd & Bogut went down with injuries), and when stupid Skiles actually played CV decent minutes he went off. The only guy on the Pistons who might be a better player than him is Ben Gordon, and the fantasy world is very soon going to see what kind of havoc an unleashed CV can wreak on the rest of the NBA. He fits into small ball or big ball strategies since he scores, hits 3's, gets rebs and plays D, and has good %'s to boot - a win, win for JM here.

GB gets the last non-injury risk top tier C in Horford @ #54 (but in all honestly, I still can't see what direction this team is going in, other than drafting the highest value players - this can be a good strategy, but then you have to rely on the other managers in the league making trades w/ you to mold your squad how you want), SK continues his obsession w/ 3's (although I think Salmons would have been a bit safer play than Redd), SZ gets the overrated, but well-rounded Turk at a fairly appropriate pick, and JP reaches somewhat @ #57 for a "young" Thaddeus (haha - I crack myself up) w/ significant upside potential.

For like 10 picks a couple other managers and I were wondering aloud when someone would finally draft the injured Jamison (who will need to be healthy if the Wiz hope to finally knock out Varejao and the Cavs in the playoffs, like in the pic above). DW has shown no aversion in the past to drafting injured players, but I really think he got good value here (@ #58), especially on his small-ball team. Plus, we have the 1 IR slot, and he didn't draft multiple other injured players (for the 1st time ever - lol), so the risk is really minimal.

We are used to seeing Manu in the above pose, and that mental snapshot caused him to fall significantly in fantasy drafts across the world this year. We're talking about a perennial top 30 player (based on averages) who HC scoops up w/ the 59th pick. HC keeps his steals strong and gets a much needed injection of 3's, but he will still need to find some more assists in the very near future to complement CP3...

Camby rounds out the end of Round 6 for JB, who finally gets a C on his squad - you just have to wonder how long this particular one can stay out of his IR spot for.

Round 7:

JB - 61. Blake Griffin; HC - 62. Boris Diaw; DW - 63. Mo Williams; JP - 64. Ramon Sessions; SZ - 65. Zach Randolph; SK - 66. Rudy Gay; GB - 67. Tyreke Evans; JM - 68. Jason Terry; AM - 69. Carlos Boozer; Me - 70. BARON DAVIS

I'm not a particularly big fan of rookies in fantasy b-ball, but especially not this one (unless you are throwing FT% like I am - but even I wasn't looking at taking him early since I already had plenty of scoring rebounders). Blake's FT struggles just kill your FT%, since he will put up a ton of them at 60%. Last time I checked, the only guy worth throwing FT% for was named Dwight Howard. But Blake has universally been drafted way too high in every mock and real draft I've seen due to his IRL value, which unfortunately for his owners (sorry, JB), doesn't translate into fantasy b-ball success. I had him ranked #106, and the 61st pick is just way too high to take him at.

This is a bit of a sneaky pick for HC, since Diaw can help out CP3 significantly with assists, so I can't fault this pick at all, but to meet positional needs, B-Diddy may have been the better pick for him here. In retrospect, I'm actually quite jealous of the draft DW has going to this point (minus David West and plus Troy Murphy at that #23 pick) since I love to go small ball w/ solid rebs and punt FG%.

Just like Sessions got duped by David Kahn into thinking he was coming to Minnesota for a starting gig at PG, so was JP duped into drafting Sessions early by that starter promise. When a round of "huhs?" went up from the peanut gallery after he wrote this pick on the big board, JP was unpleasantly surprised to learn that Flynn, and not Sessions, was penciled in to start at PG on opening night. "Beuller? Beuller?..." ;0)

Zach Randolph seems to be a 20-10 guy no matter what team he plays on (probably because he's a black hole on offense), and doesn't hurt SZ's %'s. SK finally breaks the geriatric mold to get another young Grizzly, Rudy Gay, who would have significant upside if he didn't play w/ 3 other black holes (Zach, AI and O.J.) - but it's still a very solid pick (and EVERY SINGLE player SK has taken so far hits 3's!).

Again, I don't like to take rookies this early (pick #67 for a guy I had ranked #110) but this particular rookie probably has more upside than any of the others, and don't be at all surprised if he wins ROY. Blake Griffin is surrounded by a lot of talent and has to compete for minutes w/ Camby and Kaman, while Tyreke has zero competition for PG minutes (Udrih? PuhLEASE...) and plays on an awful team. His game is like a hybrid of Rondo's and DWade's and we all know how those guys turned out (although the low 3pt total is a fantasy issue). I think GB could have waited another round or 2 to get Tyreke, but he really wanted this particular rookie, and it's not difficult to see why.

The Jet is always underrated (esp. since he has PG/SG eligibility) and JM gets good value once again w/ this pick.

The player above is a POOTY TANG who I despise as much as any Celtic. He doesn't challenge any shots, holds and shoves people to get rebounds, and has some of the least heart of any All-Star player I have ever seen. That being said, he gets 18-10 w/ great FG%, and AM gets great value drafting Boozer this late (@ #69).

So, I've been staring at John Salmons and Ron Artest on my cheat sheet for the last 9 picks since they are easily the highest rated players remaining, but I am VERY concerned about my lack of PGs and assists. As such, I realized that, despite his horrible %'s, I can ignore the FT% and get my assists jump-started w/ B-Diddy. But I also didn't forget about my highly underrated SG friend from Chicago...

Round 8:

Me - 71. JOHN SALMONS; AM - 72. Luis Scola; JM- 73. Emeka Okafor; GB - 74. Lou Williams; SK - 75. Shaquille O'Neal; SZ - 76. Stephen Jackson; JP - 77. J.R. Smith; DW - 78. Jeff Green; HC - 79. Ron Artest; JB - 80. Tyrus Thomas

I need another SG, and I don't want to pass on too much overall fantasy value during the draft just for the sake of getting guys who fit my team a bit better. I am extremely high on Salmons this year w/ Gordon gone (I had him ranked #44), and he provides well-rounded contribution w/ solid %'s. He is durable and essentially has no fantasy weakness. It's a shame to waste his 3pters, but I'll happily take the points and other stats. All in all, I feel like I got a steal here w/ the 71st pick.

Scola is a very solid C (w/ Yao out for the season) who doesn't hurt AM's %'s (which he is always mindful of), Emeka bolsters JM's rebs and blks and makes his earlier KMart pick make a lot more sense, and Lou is one of the last high scoring, quality PGs left (and w/ 4 PGs and 3 C's already, GB can now just go for the best player available on the board w/ each remaining pick).

As a (non-gay) Kobe-lover, I can't stand Shaq IRL, and I can't stand this sub-optimal pick for SK's fantasy squad. He has a classic small-ball team going w/ amazing 3's, pts, asts and FT% and barely any blocks whatsoever. Why then go with the "Big Lazy A$$" here (who significantly hurts your FT%)? I probably would have solidified steals here w/ Artest, all-around production with SJax or rebounds w/ Noah, but SK's wife is a Cavs fan, so maybe he felt pressured here... ;0) Still, the 75th pick is way too early for Shaq (e.g. consider that I had him ranked #139).

If SJax looks confused about why he dropped so far in the draft, he doesn't have to look any farther than his own idiotic antics w/ the Warriors. #76 seems real late for SJax, so SZ looks to have gotten good value, but owning SJax this year has to make one highly uneasy, given his trade demands, the "Nellie factor," and his general overall stupidity. Still, if he can keep his head together, he gives great all-around production (minus FG% and TO's).

I was really high on J.R. Smith this season before his legal issues and his 7-gm suspension popped up. Now, it seems that Afflalo has won the starting SG job in Denver, but I still expect J.R. will improve on his stats from last year for JP. DW goes for the Thunder trifecta with Jeff Green (& Durant & Westbrook), and you can't argue with the substantial fantasy value that Green provides. If anything, DW can just trade one of his young OKC guys (well, probably NOT Durant) if he has to.

Ron-Ron may not be the #1, #2 or even #3 option on offense anymore, but he's still Ron Artest and will play great D and find a way to put up useful offensive production on the Lakers. His scoring will go down, but his assists and FG% will go up, and he should still provide plenty of 3's and stls still. HC gets the steal of the 8th round (@ pick #79), and I had Artest rated #47.

Tyrus Thomas is an athletic freak and will provide plenty of stls and blks for JB, as long as Vinny continues to give him his due playing time.

Round 9:

JB - 81. Mario Chalmers; HC - 82. Leandro Barbosa; DW - 83. Spencer Hawes; JP - 84. Joakim Noah; SZ - 85. Marc Gasol; SK - 86. Andre Miller; GB - 87. Channing Frye; JM - 88. Mike Bibby; AM - 89. Josh Howard; Me - 90. T.J. FORD

Mario Chalmers is an enigma to me, because my Basketballmonster.com rating for him says he's a fantasy beast (I'm assuming because of his combo of 3's, asts and stls), but he just seems to do nothing half of the games he's out there (take yesterday's preseason game for example). If Chalmers lives up to his potential he will be a solid pick for JB, but he feels like the riskiest of the players rated as highly as he is. HC grabs Barbosa, who seems primed for a pretty big year (now that Shaq is gone), but it is very important to note that, as of now, Barbosa only has SG eligibility in ESPN. As such, HC probably would have been better off taking Nate Robinson or T.J. Ford here, but Barbosa does have the potential to be a fantasy beast. Spencer Hawes makes sense for DW's small-ball squad, and he desperately needed a 2nd C. JP grabs the best remaining C available and I think Noah is gonna have a much better year than most people predict of him. Vinny loves the guy and he hustles, plays D, and gets cheap baskets - a solid IRL and fantasy player. SZ teams up Pau w/ his brother Marc, and we officially have a C run going! You can't fault anyone here, because the centers are really starting to dry up at this point (which is part of the reason why I really wanted to have 3 solid C's going into the middle rounds). SK breaks the 3-pt mold and finally drafts someone who doesn't chuck 'em up from long distance. While I'm not a huge fan of Andre Miller in Portland (since for some strange reason, Nate McMillan refuses to start him), he has the potential to have a big year, and I like SK picking up some more assists here to help Nash out.

I'm actually very high on Channing Frye this year (as he is the Sun's starting C), and think he's a perfect fit for GB's "pooty tang" big man squad, but there is something to be said about drafting someone earlier than you have to (like you will eventually see that I did in round 10 - arg!...). A "sleeper" is only a true sleeper if you wait to draft them until after your perceived value of them has passed. I actually note on my cheat sheet which players are universally undervalued (e.g. fantasy studs like CV and John Salmons) so that I know I can pass on them (e.g. to meet positional needs 1st) and get them 1, 2 or 3 rounds later than where I have them valued at. As I said, I love Frye on GB's squad, but he easily could have picked him up 2 or 3 rounds later.

With Terry and now Bibby, JM has officially signaled that he has given up on assists, which I totally agree with on his squad. Bibby gets a ton of 3's, but I think I would have gone w/ Nate Robinson here (but it didn't end up mattering, because I completely screwed up my 10th round pick, and JM magically picked up Nate 20 frickin' picks later @ #108!). Next, I'm starting to get a bit antsy now, because 5 out of 9 of my historically chief rival's (we have finished 1-2 in the regular season and played each other in the finals the past 2 seasons) picks have been great value picks, and Josh Howard is no exception for AM (the other 4 value picks being Kidd, Butler, Ray and Boozer), assuming he can stay a bit healthier this season. I'm beginning to think I am going to have to go through AM yet again if I want to get a 3-peat this year... :0/

So, to wrap up the 9th round, I am more than happy to pick up T.J. Ford, and continue building on my assists. I think T.J. will have a big year now that Jarrett Jack is gone (Earl Watson ain't gonna steal any of T.J.'s minutes), and actually had him rated #67. So, I'm feeling pretty good getting him 90th, and am feeling quite positive about my entire draft so far. Unfortunately, that all changes after my next pick...

But, sadly, that's all the time I have for now. I will finish off the last 5 rounds of this ESPN draft in my next post. Until then, I hope you enjoy the analysis and that it helps you in drafting or crafting your team into a powerhouse. As always, I greatly appreciate any comments and ad clicks (they actually have some pretty cool stuff on the side nowadays, such as Laker tix!) you can provide. Peace out, ballers!

- by Kobe is King